There are bad matchups and then there is Arizona’s defense versus USC’s offense. To say Lincoln Riley and the high-powered Trojans offensive machine is licking its chops heading into the road tilt Saturday in Tucson, Ariz., would be an understatement.
Arizona comes into this game ranked 115th in total defense, 110th in rushing defense, 103rd in pass defense and 124th in scoring defense (37.7 PPG). The Wildcats allowed 49 points in losses to Washington, Oregon and California. Yikes.
This is an overwhelming mismatch for quarterback Caleb Williams and a USC offense that averages 40.4 points per game; ninth-best in college football. The Trojans suffered their first loss of the season at Utah on a late two-point conversion, but had a week off to put it behind them. They should roll over the undermanned Wildcats on Saturday.
The pick: USC -15.5.
EASTERN MICHIGAN (+6.5) over Toledo
This line opened Toledo -9, but money came in on Eastern Michigan and the number was down to 6.5 as of Friday. The reason for the line movement is the uncertain status of Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn, who was injured on the final play of the game last week against Buffalo.
How important is Finn to the Rockets’ offense? Through eight games he has thrown for 1,637 yards, rushed for 521 yards, and accounted for 26 touchdowns. I bet Eastern Michigan at +7 because word floating around pro bettors was that Finn was unlikely to play on Saturday.
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If Finn can’t play, redshirt freshman Tucker Gleason would get the start. That means Toledo would go from the top quarterback in the MAC to one with 22 career pass attempts. I figured this game would be tight with Finn, but without him, Eastern Michigan could win outright at home. Take the points.
OHIO STATE (-15.5) over Penn State
If you looked at the Game of the Year lines sportsbooks posted before the season, it was obvious oddsmakers thought Ohio State was in a different class. The Buckeyes were double-digit favorites in all eight games sportsbooks released early spreads for this summer.
Ohio State hasn’t disappointed. After a slow start in the season opener versus Notre Dame, the Buckeyes have been untouchable, winning their next six games by a combined score of 326-94.
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I had Penn State last week and mentioned Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan was unlikely to play. He sat and the Gophers were forced to start a redshirt freshman in Happy Valley. Ohio State will be starting Heisman Trophy favorite C.J. Stroud in Happy Valley. Big difference.
Penn State got blasted by Michigan in its one big test this season. I expect a similar outcome versus the Buckeyes. Ohio State has too much firepower for the Nittany Lions to keep up.
Last week: 3-0. Penn State (W), Cal (W), Duke (W)
Season: 14-11-1.