Our NHL betting expert breaks down the best betting picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Oilers on Monday at 8 p.m. ET live on the NHL Network.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Pittsburgh Penguins are off and running this season.
Sitting atop the Metropolitan Division with nine points from five games and an NHL-best +15 goal differential, the Pens have started the 2022-23 campaign like they have something to prove. There were plenty of skeptics who thought the age of Pittsburgh’s generational core would finally catch up to it — and it still might, the Pens started last season well before slowing down over the 82-game marathon — but right now, the Penguins look like they’ve been shot out of a cannon.
Pittsburgh travels to Alberta to take on the Edmonton Oilers on Monday night. Oddsmakers have installed the Oilers as a slight -120 favorite.
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Penguins vs. Oilers odds:
- Penguins: +100
- Oilers: -120
- Over/Under: 6.5
Penguins vs. Oilers Prediction: Penguins +100 (Caesars)
While the Penguins look like world-beaters out of the gates, it’s been a much rockier start to the season for the Oilers, who were a trendy Stanley Cup pick and entered Opening Night as the second-favorite in the Western Conference behind the Colorado Avalanche.
A 2-3-0 start has thrown some cold water on the Oilers’ hype train and what’s especially concerning is that Edmonton’s defense and goaltending are struggling to keep up.
After a rousing second-half performance and a run to the Western Conference Finals last season, the general consensus around the Oilers was that if they upgraded in goal, they would present a legitimate threat out West. So when the Oilers signed Jack Campbell to a five-year deal during free agency, the bandwagon began to fill up quickly.
But Campbell has struggled to adjust to start the season, posting a .888 save percentage and a -2.6 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in four appearances. The defense in front of Campbell hasn’t been great — Edmonton ranks 24th in expected goals against per 60 minutes — but the Oilers will need better from the former Maple Leaf if they’re going to make another run.
With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leading the charge, the Oilers can outscore some defensive misgivings or inconsistent goaltending, but that job becomes a lot tougher against a strong defensive team like the Penguins.
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Every season under Mike Sullivan, the Penguins rank near the top of the NHL at preventing scoring chances, and that is carrying into ’22-23 as the Pens sit third in the league at preventing high-danger scoring chances and rank fifth in expected goals against. They’re one of a few teams in the league that can feel confident in their ability to slow down McDavid and Co.
The stylistic matchup, current form, and goaltending battle all favor the Penguins in this one, so there’s no reason to thumb your nose at Pittsburgh as a slight underdog in Edmonton on Monday night.