It has been an interesting week at Wisconsin. The Badgers fired head coach Paul Chryst and promoted defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. Regardless of who is coaching, Wisconsin hasn’t earned the right to be a 10.5-point road favorite.
The biggest issue with the Badgers this season is their inability to run the football. Wisconsin has been known for its prolific rushing attacks for more than two decades. Last week against Illinois, however, the Badgers managed just two rushing yards.
Northwestern is allowing more than 191 yards per game on the ground. Typically, the Badgers would run right over Northwestern, but I don’t expect Leonhard to fix all of the Badgers’ offensive line issues in just a few days.
Northwestern has started a disappointing 1-4, but all of its games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. I see that trend continuing on Saturday.
Northwestern vs. Wisconsin pick
Northwestern +10.5 (FanDuel)
Tennessee (-3) over LSU
This is a big game in the SEC, but we’re getting some value with the much better team.
LSU beat Auburn last week despite just five yards passing in the second half, forcing three fourth-quarter turnovers to win, 21-17. But they will need to play much better against a Tennessee squad that many believe is the third best team in the SEC.
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LSU does have an impressive home win over Mississippi State, but that game was at night. Tennessee catches a break with this game being at noon ET, before the LSU faithful get too raucous.
I make this line closer to Tennessee -5. Lay the short number on the road with the Vols.
NAVY (+5.5) over Tulsa
The Midshipmen have started to play a little better over the last couple of games, especially defensively, beating East Carolina, 23-20, and losing to Air Force, 13-10.
Tulsa is a bit overvalued in the betting market. The Golden Hurricane have been favorites of 6-or-more point twice this season and failed to cover both times. They lost outright in a similar spot earlier this year against Wyoming, as 6.5-point road favorites.
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I’ll back an improving Navy team getting points at home.
Army (+16.5) over WAKE FOREST
Sticking with the service academies, Army is in a good spot this week, getting 17 points against Wake Forest. These two teams played a wild game last year and Army covered this number despite allowing 70 points. You don’t see that very often.
In that meeting, Army rushed for 416 yards and gained 7.2 yards per play. The problem was, the Cadets gave up 12.3 yards per play.
If Army can eat up clock on the ground and make the Deacons punt a couple of times, I like its chances to cover over two touchdowns.
Last week: 1-2. Alabama (W), Georgia (L), USC 1st half (L)
Season: 8-7-1.