Entering this NFL season, we knew there would be an Offensive Rookie of the Year race unlike any we’d seen in recent memory. Only one quarterback was taken in the first two rounds — something that hadn’t happened in 22 years — while a record six receivers were drafted in the first 20 picks.
Sure enough, through the first three weeks of the season, receivers Chris Olave and Drake London are tied for the shortest odds (+400) to win the award at BetMGM, where four of the top five choices on the board are wide outs. The lone outlier? Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett, who remains a top option though he has yet to take a snap.
That’s the power of being a quarterback in this market. Signal-callers have won Rookie of the Year honors in nine of the last 18 seasons. That’s a whopping 50 percent hit rate, and those nine QB winners are well ahead of the number of running backs (six) or receivers (three) to win in that span. So, which quarterbacks are worth betting in this year’s field?
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Here are the options to consider and whether it’s worth making a speculative bet on any of them:
Kenny Pickett, Steelers (+900)
Pickett’s odds have scarcely moved since he opened as the favorite to win this award over the summer. Yes, he hasn’t taken a snap yet for the Steelers, but it feels like just a matter of time before head coach Mike Tomlin turns to the rookie to ignite his offense, which has been lethargic with Mitch Trubisky at the helm.
Trubisky has been lackluster, to say the least, ranking 22nd in QBR (44.0) and 29th in passer rating (77.7) entering Week 4. Pittsburgh is actually incentivized to make a decision on its starter relatively soon, as Trubisky’s contract calls for bonuses once he plays at least 60 percent of the team’s snaps. Even half a season of solid play from Pickett could be enough to vault him atop an otherwise uninspiring field.
Desmond Ridder, Falcons (40/1)
The Falcons are bad, and that’s good for Ridder’s chances of seeing game action in his rookie campaign. He has decent weapons at his disposal, too, with tight end Kyle Pitts and fellow rookie London emerging as young stars in Atlanta.
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Has Marcus Mariota been bad enough to lose this job, though? The former
No. 2 pick ranks 12th in QBR (55.8) through three weeks, and his impact on the ground has added a new dimension to this offense, which quietly ranks ninth in points per game (26.7) ahead of Week 4. Ridder might get his chance eventually, but it may not be soon enough to compete for this award.
Malik Willis, Titans (50/1)
When I first saw Willis’ odds, I couldn’t believe my eyes. The toolsy Liberty product has already seen game action this year for the Titans, whose season is quickly slipping away after a 1-2 start. It’s not as though starter Ryan Tannehill has been awful, but he clearly has regressed without a solid supporting cast around him.
Tennessee could save $27 million by moving on from Tannehill after this season, so it behooves the staff to see what they have in Willis before making such a critical decision. There’s clear risk here, especially given how raw Willis looks, but he has the upside to put together a potential award-winning campaign down the stretch.