The first week of the NFL season is officially behind us, which means we have exactly one data point to recklessly speculate about all 32 teams in the league.
Oddsmakers haven’t wasted any time on that front, as we’ve already seen some aggressive moves in the Super Bowl market compared to just a few days ago. Some of the moves are warranted (sorry, Cowboys fans), but some feel a bit too preemptive after just one game.
Here are the biggest overreactions in the title market at BetMGM after Week 1:
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2022 NFL Super Bowl odds movement after Week 1
Eagles (25/1 to 14/1)
Are we really doing this already? Philadelphia entered the season among the most-hyped teams in the NFL, thanks to the addition of A.J. Brown on offense and a handful of key additions to a defense that underwhelmed a year ago. Yet the biggest reason for optimism was the expected growth of Jalen Hurts, who had yet to prove he could add significant value as a passer.
How’s that look so far? The third-year quarterback completed 56.3% of his passes and went just 8 of 19 for 88 yards when targeting anyone other than Brown (10 catches, 155 yards), who admittedly was unstoppable on Sunday. This defense controlled the first half but still gave up 35 points to the lowly Lions, who cut a 17-point deficit to three points with four minutes left before the Eagles ran out the clock.
Yes, there are reasons for excitement with this group, but 25/1 was already pricing in plenty of Super Bowl upside. Is a 3-point win over last year’s second-worst team really worth this much of a bump? Stay away for now.
Browns (30/1 to 40/1)
So this team went on the road with a backup quarterback, won outright as an underdog, and saw its odds … worsen? I don’t really understand this move on the Browns, who were as short as 20/1 this summer before Deshaun Watson’s suspension became official.
Remember that this is ultimately a futures bet on this team’s ability to win the Super Bowl, not finish with the No. 1 seed. Sure, the team we saw on Sunday likely isn’t good enough to post the best record in the NFL or even win the division with how the Ravens looked in their season opener. But Jacoby Brissett and Co. can clearly weather the storm, and outgaining the Panthers by nearly 100 yards with zero turnovers constitutes an impressive road win in its own right.
When Watson comes back in Week 13, this team will be scary — particularly if Nick Chubb (141 yards) and Myles Garrett (two sacks) keep playing like they did on Sunday. I’d be buying the dip on the Browns, which could easily find itself back at 20/1 in a couple of months.
Steelers (80/1 to 50/1)
Look, the Steelers deserve credit for pulling out Sunday’s weird and wacky win in Cincinnati. But at no point did this look like a team that can win it all — and key injuries mean the arrow might even be pointing down after a Week 1 win.
The crazy part of Pittsburgh’s title odds shortening after that zany 23-20 overtime win was just how much the Bengals bungled it. Cincinnati committed five turnovers; came a toe-tap away on multiple touchdowns in the final minutes; mismanaged two kicks that would have won the game outright; and still took this game the distance in Sunday’s 75-minute affair.
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The Steelers had just 13 first downs all game, went 4-for-15 on third down, and were outgained by 165 yards. That’s to say nothing of the injury to T.J. Watt (pectoral) that could cost him the entire season.
Celebrate the win for a week, Pittsburgh fans, because very little about Sunday’s contest screams “Super Bowl contender” in my book.