Browns vs. Panthers prediction: Odds and picks for Baker Mayfield revenge game

Our NFL betting expert brings you his Browns vs Panthers predictions and betting picks for their NFL Week 1 showdown, which is live at 1 p.m. EST on CBS.

After spending four seasons in Cleveland, quarterback Baker Mayfield makes his Carolina debut against his former team in this 2022 opener. That won’t be any easy task opposite a Browns defense that features star defensive end Myles Garrett.

Browns vs Panthers picks

• Browns to cover +1.5 points @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook
• Under 43.0 points @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook
• Christian McCaffrey over 5.5 total receptions @  +108 with Caesars Sportsbook

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Browns vs Panthers prediction and analysis

Mayfield (61.6 completion percentage, 14,125 yards, 92 touchdowns, 56 interceptions in 60 games) is a Panther because the Browns felt they needed an upgrade at quarterback, but that upgrade is suspended into December and journeyman Jacoby Brissett steps in for Cleveland.

Browns +1.5

Mayfield went 29-30 as the Browns’ starter and gets a fresh start with Carolina and has an established star in the versatile Christian McCaffrey (NFL-leading 113.8 average scrimmage yards among active players). The Panthers have endured three straight five-win seasons and last made the playoffs in 2017.

Sure, DJ Moore (93 receptions, 1,157 yards in 2021) has talent, but its uncertain how improved Carolina’s offense will be from last season, when it ranked 29^th in scoring (17.9 ppg).

Not to mention, Cleveland’s defense is expected to be the backbone of the team after holding nine opponents to 17 or fewer points while going 8-9 last season. Garrett, meanwhile, set a franchise record with 16 sacks in 2021, and has 58.5 for his career.

Our Pick: Browns to cover the point spread (+1.5)

Browns vs. Panthers under 43 points

Brissett is on his fourth NFL team, but has proved his staying power. He has thrown just 17 interceptions in 60 career games, so Brissett doesn’t make too many mistakes.

The Browns are not asking Brissett to be Superman, and he has running back Nick Chubb (second in the NFL with 1,259 rushing yards last season) to lean on. If he does want to air it out, Amari Cooper is an enticing option in his first season with Cleveland.

But again, Cleveland’s defense, which also features another talented defensive end in Jadeveon Clowney (nine sacks, 11 tackles for loss in ’21), has the potential to dominate this matchup. And, should have the same extra incentive as Mayfield in this reunion contest.

Our Pick: Under 43.0 total points

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Christian McCaffrey over 5.5 receptions

We’ve established our fancy for Cleveland’s defense, especially an ability to rush the quarterback (tied for ninth with 43 sacks in ’21), in this contest. But, there’s also a good chance McCaffrey will be the best offensive player on the field.

When healthy he’s among the elite offensive players in the game, and arguably the most versatile. In two of the three seasons he played every game, McCaffrey rushed for 1,000 or more yards and also recorded at least 100 receptions.

In 29 of the 58 regular-season games McCaffrey has played, his caught at least six passes. Expect Mayfield to rely on McCaffrey often, especially if the Panthers are in catch-up mode.

Our Pick: Christian McCaffrey over 5.5 receptions

Browns vs. Panthers odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Total Points 43	Team	Spread	Moneyline
Over -110	Browns	(+1.5) -110	-105
Under -110	Panthers	(-1.5) -110	-115