Illinois should be 2-0 to start this season, but the Fighting Illini lost to Indiana last week in a game they let slip away late. Despite rolling up 448 yards and 29 first downs, Illinois scored 20 points and left the door open for Indiana to win the game in the final seconds.
The most alarming takeaway from that game, however, is the Illini defense allowing Indiana quarterback Connor Bazelak to throw for 330 yards. That’s not great news with Virginia and Brennan Armstrong coming to town.
Armstrong threw for 405 yards and five touchdowns against Illinois last season in the Cavaliers’ 42-14 blowout win. Illinois opened against two offenses (Wyoming, Indiana) that aren’t projected to be great passing teams and its secondary still struggled. That’s not likely to change on Saturday.
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I grabbed Virginia +5 on the opener, but still see value in taking the Cavaliers at anything over a field goal in what should be a tight game.
The pick: Virginia +4.5
AIR FORCE (-10) over Colorado, first half
You might be surprised to see Air Force listed as a full-game 17.5-point favorite over a Pac-12 school. Don’t be. The Falcons are loaded this season and I believe they are a team with a puncher’s chance to go undefeated in the regular season. Colorado? Not so much.
The Buffaloes have a lot of issues, but the biggest might be stopping the run. Last week against TCU, the Horned Frogs racked up 275 yards rushing. What do you think Air Force will finish with on Saturday? I’ll set the Falcons’ total rushing yards at 400.
There are a lot of ways to bet Air Force in this game but my favorite is backing the Falcons -10 in the first half. I think Air Force gets out to a lead early and never looks back.
Kentucky (+6) over FLORIDA
The Gators are being a little overvalued right now because of their Week 1 win over Utah. While quarterback Anthony Richardson looked like a legit Heisman contender, it overshadowed Florida’s defense allowing 230 rushing yards and Utah running 71 plays.
My colleague Michael Leboff previews this game extensively in our Bet Smart section but bottom line: This number is a little high because of the Week 1 overreaction to Florida. I’d back Kentucky at anything +4 or higher.
Last week: 1-2. Syracuse (W), Oregon (L), Maryland (L).