The eyes of the sporting world will be on Serena Williams on Monday night. The 23-time Grand Slam champion announced this summer that she will be retiring after the U.S. Open, meaning that her first-round matchup with Danka Kovinic, the 83rd-ranked player in the world, could be the final time we ever see one of the greatest athletes of all time in singles competition — she’s set to play doubles with sister Venus as well.
Serena is a prohibitive -400 favorite over Kovinic at BetMGM. Those odds convert to a 78.7 percent win probability for Williams. It’s hard to imagine a better draw for Serena, who comes into the event unseeded.
Even with the favorable draw, laying that kind of juice on Serena at this stage of her career is a tough pill to swallow. Williams has played just four matches since June 2021 and is 1-3 in those matches.
Last time out, the 40-year-old looked every bit her age in a loss to reigning U.S. Open champion Emma Raducanu. Raducanu is miles better than Kovinic, who is 8-14 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks and 0-2 so far in the North American hard court season.
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The quick conditions should be a boost for Serena, as she can rely on her powerful serve to keep points as short as possible. But she has struggled to move around the court, which forces her into low-percentage shots to avoid getting into long rallies.
If Kovinic can hang around and extend the match, she’s a live underdog at +290.
The play: Danka Kovnic +290