Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total, over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs (+1000 to win Super Bowl, FanDuel)
2021 record: 12-5, 1st in AFC West
When Patrick Mahomes burst on the scene in 2018, the Kansas City Chiefs seemed destined to be the next dynasty to follow the New England Patriots.
Yet, while the Chiefs have had success, it doesn’t nearly match what we’ve seen with the Patriots when they were at their peak. Kansas City does deserve credit for reaching the AFC title game in each of the past four years. However, the Chiefs have only one Super Bowl to show for their efforts.
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Although there’s no question the Chiefs raised the bar, I think it’s fair to say the teams around the league have done well to narrow the gap. Kansas City could face their biggest challenge this season as they’ll be without one of the most dynamic players in the league in Tyreek Hill.
We’ll highlight any other critical changes to the roster as we create a roadmap on how to attack them in the futures market.
Chiefs offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Notable departures include Tyreek Hill (85.1 PFF grade), LB Melvin Ingram III (79.7 PFF grade), CB Mike Hughes (79.6 PFF grade), S Tyrann Mathieu (67.3 PFF grade), RB Darrel Williams (67.2 PFF grade), Byron Pringle (66.5 PFF grade), and Charvarius Ward (65.7 PFF grade).
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (66.1 PFF grade) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (59.2 PFF grade) will replace the outgoing wide receivers, while Justin Reid (50.9 PFF grade) will have big shoes to fill at safety.
- Drafted Washington cornerback Trent McDuffie (21st pick), Purdue edge rusher George Karlaftis (30th pick), Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore (54th pick), Cincinnati S Bryan Cook (62nd pick), Wisconsin linebacker Leo Chenal (103rd pick), Fayetville State CB Joshua Williams (135th pick), Kentucky OL Darian Kinnard (145th pick), Washington State CB Jalen Watson (243rd pick), Rutgers RB Isiah Pacheco (251st pick), and Marshall safety Nazeeh Johnson (259th pick).
Kansas City Chiefs 2022 schedule
Week 1: at Cardinals
Week 2: vs. Chargers
Week 3: at Colts
Week 4: at Buccaneers
Week 5: vs. Raiders
Week 6: vs. Bills
Week 7: at 49ers
Week 8: Bye
Week 9: vs. Titans
Week 10: vs. Jaguars
Week 11: at Chargers
Week 12: vs. Rams
Week 13: at Bengals
Week 14: at Broncos
Week 15: at Texans
Week 16: vs. Seahawks
Week 17: vs. Broncos
Week 18: at Raiders
NFL betting lines: Chiefs win total
O/U 10.5 wins
Chiefs coach, Andy Reid, does as good a job as anyone in setting his teams up for this regular season. According to our Action Labs database, since becoming Kansas City’s head coach in 2013, the Chiefs have the best record (27-9) over the season’s first four games.
I think the reason for his success is that he’s not shy about playing his star players during the preseason. The Chiefs have a lot at stake for this upcoming campaign, given that they’ll be without four of their top six pass catchers from last season.
As a result, it was of the utmost importance for Mahomes and his receiving corps to develop some chemistry. Mahomes played in the first two preseason games and already looks to be in midseason form.
While I know the AFC West is loaded, if there’s one team that deserves the benefit of the doubt to still go over their win total, I think it has to be the Chiefs. There should be a lot of close games decided in the fourth quarter between AFC West teams this year and Kansas City has something the other three don’t: Mahomes.
It’s worth noting that In the Mahomes-Reid era, the Chiefs have yet to finish with fewer than 12 wins in the regular season. I expect that trend to continue in 2022.
The Pick
Lean Over 10.5 wins (-115 BetMGM)
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Expert best bets, futures, and props
Travis Kelce – (O/U 1024.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards, BetMGM)
After receiving just 25 fewer targets than Tyreek Hill (159), one can only imagine how many Kelce will now get with the diminutive wide receiver off to Miami.
Kelce averaged 134 targets over the past six seasons, and he finished with at least 1,036 receiving yards in each of them. Furthermore, he’s averaging 15.75 games per season over his eight-year career, so he’s been incredibly durable.
At six-foot-five and 250 lbs, the former Cincinnati product is a physical specimen in peak athletic conditioning. When you watch Kelce play, he rarely takes a bad hit because, unlike another formidable tight end in Rob Gronkowski, he has enough speed to evade would-be tacklers.
Like Cooper Kupp and the Rams, a defense can know who’s getting the football sometimes, and still can’t stop it. Thus, I don’t see any reason we should expect Kelce’s production to decline in 2022.
I love this spot with taking the over for his receiving yards.
The Pick
Over 1024.5 regular season receiving yards (-115 FanDuel)