Kathy Hochul leads Lee Zeldin by 24 points 11 weeks before NY election: poll
Gov. Kathy Hochul has a whopping 24-point lead over Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin with 11 weeks to go before Election Day, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
The incumbent Democrat had 55% support among likely voters in the poll conducted between Aug. 17 and Aug. 22 by SurveyUSA on behalf of WNYT-TV in Albany. Another 31% backed Zeldin and 14% said they were undecided.
The 24-point margin is Hochul’s biggest lead over Zeldin in any survey since the congressman won the June 23 Republican primary. Polls taken last month by Emerson College and Siena College showed the governor in front by 16 and 14 points, respectively. Earlier this month, Republican pollster John McLaughlin released a survey showing Hochul in front by just 8 points.
There was some good news for Zeldin in the survey, with 33% of voters saying battling inflation was the most important issue when it comes to deciding their vote for governor. Health care and criminal justice reform were a distant second on 12% each.
“Lee Zeldin has 10 weeks to get Gov. Hochul under 50% and the issues voters identify as most concerning to them are on his side,” GOP political consultant Bill O’Reilly told The Post. “Mrs. Hochul’s financial advantage is growing though, and that’s got to be worrisome to the Zeldin campaign.”
Zeldin leads his Democratic rival by 69 points among Republicans and 36 points among conservatives while Hochul led among every other demographic group, according to the poll.
In the SurveyUSA poll, political independents split their support 46% to 31% in favor of the governor, while self-described moderates broke for her by 49% to 30%.
The two candidates are nearly even among households with guns, with Hochul getting 41% support in that demographic compared to 40% for Zeldin.
Zeldin spokeswoman Katie Vincentz criticized the survey, pointing out it had forecast a narrow Zeldin victory in the primary, which the congressman won by 21 points.
“Our pollster, John McLaughlin, is currently tracking the race at an 8-point difference,” Vincentz told The Post in an email Tuesday.
“This is a rescue mission to save our state and losing is not an option,” she added.
Zeldin has campaigned hard on economic and criminal justice issues like opposing bail reform while Hochul has focused on abortion rights, gun control and the Republican’s votes against certifying the 2020 presidential election results from certain states.
“The more people notice Lee Zeldin is a Trump-supported Republican extremist who voted against certifying the election, the better it is for Kathy Hochul,” Democratic political consultant Evan Stavisky told The Post Tuesday.
But just 10% of respondents rated abortion as the top issue for them in the gubernatorial race while 9% more said “guns” — suggesting those issues might have limited utility for Hochul on the campaign trail.
If Zeldin is to pull off an unlikely win, experts say he’ll have to get at least 30% of the vote in the Democratic bastion of New York City while running up big margins in the suburbs and upstate.
Tuesday’s poll showed the congressman with 22% support in New York City, with the Buffalo-born Hochul leading by eight points upstate and 17 points in the NYC suburbs.
By comparison, the Siena College poll showed Zeldin with 21% support in the five boroughs and three-point leads upstate and in the New York City suburbs.
Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by roughly two-to-one in the Empire State and Hochul reported having $11.7 million on hand following her June primary victory compared to just $1.57 million for Zeldin, campaign records show.
A spokesperson for Hochul declined to comment.
The SurveyUSA poll was drawn from 715 likely New York voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.6 percentage points.