Jerry Nadler up big on Carolyn Maloney, Suraj Patel in last days of NY-12 primary: poll
Rep. Jerry Nadler is running almost 20 points ahead of rival Rep. Carolyn Maloney in the Democratic primary to represent the newly drawn 12th Congressional District, according to a new Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll released Thursday.
Among Democrats who were very likely to vote or had already cast their ballot in the contest, Nadler had 43% support compared to 24% for Maloney and 14% for attorney Suraj Patel. Nadler got an outright majority when undecided voters expressed their leanings, earning 51% support compared to 29% for Maloney and 19% for Patel.
The survey represents a stunning turnaround from May, when the same poll showed Maloney leading Nadler by 10 points.
“In the final week of the primary election, Nadler has solidified his base of support, Patel has gained traction, while Maloney has lost her base of women voters,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling said in a statement.
“Back in May, Maloney led Nadler among women by 15 points, which narrowed to a two-point lead in early August, and now in the final week of the primary, Maloney is losing women to Nadler by 12 points,” Kimball added.
Nadler led Maloney by nine points in the Aug. 5 Emerson survey and Thursday’s poll showed him gaining three percentage points on Maloney — who saw seven points shaved off her support.
The new district, which runs roughly from 96th Street to 14th Street, includes Nadler and Maloney’s longtime power bases of the west and east sides of Manhattan, respectively.
The House Judiciary Committee chairman has also gotten a boost from Patel, who has attacked Maloney over issues like her controversial past comments about vaccinations in his third straight primary run against the 76-year-old.
The latest poll shows President Biden with a 79% approval rating in the district, which he won by 72 points over ex-President Donald Trump in 2020, according to an analysis by CUNY Mapping Services.
Both Nadler and Maloney got guff over comments at a recent debate at which Nadler said it was “too early to say” whether Biden should run for a second term — while Maloney stated she didn’t believe Biden would run again.
However, a majority of voters (51%) said a candidate’s opposition to a second Biden term makes no difference to their congressional vote.
The Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll surveyed 895 Democrats who were likely to vote in the primary or who had already voted. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.2 percentage points.
