Wyndham Championship expert golf picks, predictions for the first round

We’ve reached the conclusion of our Wyndham Championship best bets. That, of course, means it’s time to throw some darts.

Although we failed to cash a first-round leader bet last week, we had a nice sweat with Lee Hodges (100/1), who finished two shots off the pace. This week, I’ve once again settled on four players to lead after the opening round based on a combination of relevant statistics and course history.

As it stands, four players — Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Webb Simpson and Will Zalatoris — are co-favorites to lead after the opening round at +3100.

With that said, here are my four best first-round leader bets for the Wyndham Championship. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at the time of writing.

Also read: Wyndham Championship matchup bets

Wyndham Championship expert golf picks, predictions

First-Round Leader Bet #1 – Russell Henley (+4200)

I’m all aboard the Henley train this week — I’ve backed him in both a derivative and a matchup — so why not invest in first-round leader too?

Over his last 24 opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Henley models out first overall in the field. Shrink the sample down to his past 12 rounds and Henley remains as the best player in the field.

In that latter projection, Henley ranks first in birdies or better gained, first in SG: Par 4’s and seventh in SG: Approach. Further, Henley ranks 11th in three-putt avoidance over that span, another good indicator he’s capable of going low Thursday.

Henley also led the Wyndham after the opening round last year before ultimately finishing tied for seventh. Lastly, he’s fifth on tour this season in first-round scoring and is first in the field in SG: Total over his last 12 opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards.

Based on those trends, I’m slightly surprised you’re not seeing Henley further up the board. For me, I’ll back him up to +3700.

First-Round Leader Bet #2 – Harold Varner III (+5000)

Let’s back another former FRL at Sedgefield CC shall we?

Varner owns two top-10 finishes in his last five appearances at this track and finished tied for the lead after Thursday in 2020. Further, Varner III has fired five consecutive opening rounds under par at this track and was only two shots off the opening-round pace in 2017.

As for his statistical modeling, Varner III sits sixth overall across his last 12 opening rounds before jumping up to second overall in the 24-round projection. Just in that latter model, he’s first in SG: Approach, third in birdies or better gained and seventh in SG: Par 4’s.

Plus, although he’s 43rd in three-putt avoidance over that span, he’s simultaneously third in putting from 10-15 feet. Assuming his elite irons show up, I’m not overly concerned about that former ranking.

For all those reasons, 50/1 feels like a solid price on Varner III in North Carolina.

First-Round Leader Bet #3 – Joel Dahmen (+7500)

Dahmen doesn’t have the best course history here — no better than 42nd in three starts — but his underlying stats suggest he’s a good bet in this market.

Over his last 24 qualifying opening rounds, Dahmen is 12th overall in my statistical projection. But, just across his last 12 opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, he’s second overall in the field.

In that latter model, Dahmen is steady across the board. He ranks 10th in fairways gained, 17th in SG: Approach, second in GIRs gained and fifth in birdies or better gained. He’s also 18th in both Par-4 measures and is a top-30 putter from both 5-10 feet and 10-15 feet.

Plus, Dahmen was only one shot off the opening pace not too long ago at the U.S. Open and ranks in the top-15 of the field in first-round scoring this season (T-32nd overall on tour).

Although he’s never led after the opening round here, he’s fired an under-par round in all three appearances. For those reasons, I’m willing to take a flier at 75/1.

First-Round Leader Bet #4 – Nick Taylor (+11000)

Much like Hodges last week, this bet is kind of a hunch.

Taylor hasn’t played well in opening rounds of late — 89th in my 12-round projection — but I’m hoping a familiar course will help him rediscover some past form as he’s 18th in my 24-round projection.

In his last three starts at the Wyndham Championship. Taylor owns two top-10 finishes and has played each opening round under par. Plus, he was only three shots off Henley’s pace in 2021 and has two opening-round 65’s in those last three starts.

In terms of the model, his putting leaves A LOT to be desired — 116th from 5-10 feet, 103rd in three-putt avoidance — but he’s remarkably above-average in getting to the dance floor. Across those last 24 opening rounds, Taylor is 13th in fairways gained, 26th in SG: Approach, seventh in GIRs gained and 18th in birdies or better gained.

Plus, he’s 23rd in putting between 10 and 15 feet, so maybe he’s not as bad as we think in that department.

Either way, 110/1 is a great price….assuming he can keep up his record of making a lot of birdies.