Wyndham Championship predictions and picks: Russell Henley leads derivative plays

I’ve broken down my statistical modeling strategy for the Wyndham Championship, so we can now begin sharing golf picks.

We begin, as always, with my favorite derivative markets this week. Based on a combination of my modeling output and relevant course history, I’ve identified three markets that provide good value to bettors. In all cases, there are implied probability edges based on my pricing.

With that said, let’s dive into my plays. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at the time of writing.

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Wyndham Championship odds, golf picks, predictions

Best Bet #1 – Russell Henley Top-20 Finish (+145)

I was a touch surprised to find Henley in plus-money for this derivative, but nonetheless am high on him entering this week.

At this event, the Georgia product owns two consecutive top-10 finishes — T-7th last year, T-9th in 2020 — and has gained at least 2.6 strokes, putting in two straight appearances at Sedgefield Country Club.

Henley is also coming off a T-10th last week at the Rocket Mortgage and profiles quite well based on my statistical modeling. Over his last 24 qualifying rounds, Henley ranks third overall in the field. Expand the sample to include each player’s last 100 qualifying rounds, and Henley rises to second overall in the field.

In terms of the former model, Henley rates out highly in virtually all the key categories. He’s sixth in the field in SG: Approach, 10th in GIRs gained, and 11th in birdies or better gained. Further, Henley ranks 13th in SG: Par 4’s and 20th on Par 4’s, between 400 and 450 yards.

Lastly, even though Henley only owns two top-20 finishes in his last five events at courses under 7,200 yards, there’s a case that positive regression could be on the way. At the three events where he failed to finish T-20th or better — Wells Fargo, RBC Heritage, and the RSM Classic — Henley was let down by his putter but posted strong approach numbers.

At a track where he’s historically demonstrated comfort with the flat stick, expect another solid finish for Henley in North Carolina.

Best Bet #2 – J.T. Poston Top-30 Finish (+130)

Can J.T. Poston get a little respect put on his name here?

Granted, the 2019 Wyndham champion doesn’t exactly have the best record here — outside of his win, he’s made the cut only once in four remaining appearances — but recent results leave me encouraged. Plus, before posting a T-2nd at the Travelers, Poston had missed the cut four straight years at TPC River Highlands.

This year’s John Deere Classic champion profiles out quite well based on his underlying statistics. He’s first in the field in my 12-round projection and sixth overall in my 24-round output. In focusing on the latter model, there’s a lot to like about the Postman.

He’s steady with his ball striking — 24th in fairways gained, 27th in SG: Approach, 7th in GIRs gained — and has demonstrated an ability to score on short tracks. Over his last 24 qualifying rounds, Poston is 17th in the field in birdies or better gained and second in both SG: Par 4 and SG: Par 4’s – 400 to 450 yards.

Additionally, Poston possesses a great track record on similar courses. Across his last six events on courses under 7,200 yards, he’s never missed a cut and owns three consecutive top-10 finishes at those events. Across all six events, he owns four top-30 finishes.

Based on those projections, I would have Poston, who owns three finishes of T-11th or better in his last four events, priced closer to +110 for a top-30 finish and would back him up to that price.

Best Bet #3 – Adam Svensson Top-40 Finish (+100)

Svensson has made only a single appearance at the Wyndham Championship — tied for 31st in 2019 — but models out quite well.

Across his last 24 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Svensson ranks out fifth overall in the field. Although he’s posted some alarming putting metrics — 94th in three-putt avoidance & no better than 62nd in either putting measure — he’s incredibly reliable elsewhere.

For example, he’s 13th in fairways gained, third in SG: Approach, fifth in GIRs gained and first in birdies or better gained. Further, he ranks out 25th in SG: Par 4’s – 400 to 450 yards. Plus, Svensson has also demonstrated consistency in key stats over a larger sample. Across his last 50 qualifying rounds, he’s 25th in fairways gained, third in SG: Approach and second in both GIRs gained and birdies or better gained.

He’s also coming off a T-24th last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic — another Donald Ross design — and has a great finishing record this season on short courses. In his last four starts on courses under 7,200 yards, Svensson has three made cuts and finished T-26th or better in all of those made cuts.

Based on those trends, back Svensson at -120 or better for a top-40 finish this week.