Wyndham Championship modeling and golf projections for this weekend

In the last two weeks, Tony Finau has as many wins on the PGA Tour as he did in his entire previous career.

The second came Sunday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, at which Finau only made a single bogey on his way to a five-shot victory at Detroit Golf Club. The win saw Finau jump 10 spots to seventh in the FedEx Cup standings before the playoffs start next week.

Now, the tour heads to Sedgefield Country Club, a second consecutive Donald Ross design, for the Wyndham Championship. This week’s field is very even, with Sungjae Im (+1400) arriving as the pre-tournament favorite. Rounding out the top of the odds board are Shane Lowry (+1600), Will Zalatoris (+1600), Billy Horschel (+2000), Russell Henley, and Webb Simpson (both +2200).

But before we dive into our weekly bets, we start, as always, with our statistical modeling strategy for the event. In addition to the stats you’re about to read about, I added one qualifier — courses under 7,200 yards — to sort the field further.

With that said, let’s dive into this week’s model.

BetMGM Sportsbook provides all odds.

Wyndham Championship modeling and golf projections

Stat #1 – Fairways Gained (10 percent emphasis)

Given how short Sedgefield Country Club sets up for this event — the entire course measures only 7,131 yards — accuracy is much more critical off the tee.

Per datagolf.com, driving accuracy has a 34 percent correlation with SG: Total, while driving distance only has a 9.5 percent correlation. Additionally, fairways gained have a decent correlation with finishing position. Last year, four of the top-six in this category finished T-15th or better, while three of the top-four finished T-10th or better.

Additionally, this category has a sizable drop-off from winners to top-five finishers. At Sedgefield, winners gain about 1.24 fairways on the field per round, while top-five finishers have historically gained only about 0.75 fairways on the field per round.

Plus, two of the last three winners at this event ranked fourth or better in the field for the week in fairways gained.

Here are the leaders in these metrics over the last 24 qualifying rounds:

1. Ryan Armour (+25000)
2. Chez Reavie (+6600)
3. Jim Herman (+40000)
4. Russell Knox (+12500)
5. Brendon Todd (+8000)

Stat #2 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (25 percent emphasis)

Why the extreme emphasis on SG: Approach this week, you ask? Because these greens, despite measuring about 6,500 square feet, require exact approaches.

The Ross-designed surfaces feature a number of undulations and run-off areas that will punish players who are anything less than above-average with their iron play. Additionally, SG: Approach has a 61.5 percent correlation with SG: Total at Sedgefield, again per datagolf.com.

There’s also a strong correlation between players’ SG: Approach record and their overall finishing position. The last four winners at this event – Kevin Kisner, Jim Herman, J.T. Poston, and Brandt Snedeker — have ranked 11th, fourth, first, and third for the week in this metric. Expand the sample to include the last 10 winners, and bettors will find only three winners have ranked outside the top five in SG: Approach, while only two have ranked outside the top 10.

Based on those trends, I have no choice but to place a sizable emphasis on this category. Here are the leaders in this category over the last 24 qualifying rounds:

1. Shane Lowry (+1600)
2. Harold Varner III (+4000)
3. Adam Svensson (+6600)
4. Corey Conners (+2500)
5. Webb Simpson (+2200)

3

Stat #3 – Greens in Regulation Gained (10 percent emphasis)

I debated including this stat based on the heavy SG: Approach emphasis, but some key data points ultimately led to its inclusion.

The last three winners at this event have ranked eighth, first, and first in this category for the week. Across the previous five events, three winners have ranked fifth or better for the week in GIRs gained.

Additionally, there’s a sizable discrepancy between how winners perform in this category versus those that finish in the top 10. Historically, winners gain 1.73 greens per round at the Wyndham Championship, while top-10 finishers have historically gained 1.22 greens per round.

Here are the leaders in GIRs gained over the last 24 qualifying rounds:

1. Russell Knox (+12500)
2. Sungjae Im (+1400)
3. Matthew NeSmith (+10000)
4. Harold Varner III (+4000)
5. Adam Svensson (+6600)

3

Stats #4 & #5 – Birdies or Better Gained (15 percent emphasis), Three-Putt Avoidance (10 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stats – Putting: 5 to 10 feet (5 percent emphasis), Putting: 10 to 15 feet (5 percent emphasis)

Much like Detroit Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club presents very little resistance. That leads to winning scores that are pretty low.

Three of the last four winners at this track have reached -20 or better for the week, while all but one of the previous six winners have cleared the same benchmark. Hence, birdies or better gained gets a sizable amount of emphasis this week as players will (obviously) need to score to have a chance in North Carolina.

But, in simultaneously considering the undulations and fast greens at Sedgefield — the greens have been classified as “fast” for 28 consecutive rounds — I also emphasized three-putt avoidance.

Given a higher percentage of three-putts per round than at the average tour stop — 67.4 percent here vs. 55.6 percent on average — those who successfully avoid them will undoubtedly have a better chance.

Lastly, there’s a decent correlation between three-putt avoidance and finishing position. Top-five finishers avoid more three-putts compared to winners (.288/round vs. .271/round), while top-10 finishers avoid 0.264 per round.

Here are the leaders in each category over the last 24 qualifying rounds:

Birdies or Better Gained

1. Adam Svensson (+6600)
2. Mackenzie Hughes (+12500)
3. Shane Lowry (+1600)
4. Stewart Cink (+15000)
5. Keith Mitchell (+5000)

Three-Putt Avoidance

1. Brian Gay (+100000)
2. Mark Hubbard (+6600)
3. Kevin Streelman (+8000)
4. Jason Day (+5000)
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5000)

3

Stat #6 – Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s (12 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stat: SG: Par 4’s – 400 to 450 yards

Given Sedgefield CC is a par-70, that renders Par 4 efficiency the most critical scoring category this week.

All but four holes at this Ross design are set up as a par-4, while eight of those 14 holes fall between 400 and 450 yards, leading to the inclusion of the correlative stat. That correlative stat also becomes further essential when considering that half of those holes rank amongst the nine most accessible holes on the course historically.

Plus, three of the last five winners at this event have either led the field or finished second in the field while two of the previous three winners have led the field in Par 4 Efficiency.

Here are the leaders in SG: Par 4’s over the last 24 qualifying rounds:

1. Shane Lowry (+1600)
2. J.T. Poston (+3300)
3. Mackenzie Hughes (+12500)
4. Sungjae Im (+1400)
5. Brian Harman (+4000)