Sundays are for the ’dogs. Literally.
According to our Action Labs database, if you like playing underdogs, there has been no better day to do so this season. ’Dogs are 110-130, but have produced a return of +17.37 units on Sundays.
As a result, after scouring the card in search of a live underdog with value, I’ve settled on the Kansas City Royals taking on the New York Yankees.
Zack Greinke will get the start for Kansas City, and the Yankees will counter with lefty Jordan Montgomery.
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Montgomery’s numbers are decent, given that he’s 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. The fact he has just three victories from 20 starts on a team with the most wins in baseball, however, is a head-scratcher.
We’ve started to see a spike in Montgomery’s hard-hit numbers, as four of his past five starts had a rate of 40 percent or higher. And the Yankees are winless in all five of his July starts.
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My model makes the Royals a +135 underdog, so I’m getting considerable value in the market at a price of +200 or more.
The play: Royals, +220.