Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks, and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Houston Texans.
Detroit Lions (125/1 to win Super Bowl, BetRivers)
2021 record: 3-13-1, 4th in NFC North
After a bye in Week 9, the Lions were desperate to snap an 0-8 winless streak when they faced the Steelers. And while Detroit didn’t ultimately get the win, it did avoid another loss after the game ended in a tie.
That game against the Steelers was one of six in which Detroit tied or lost by four or fewer points. The perpetual losing certainly got to Lions head coach Dan Campbell who seemed to break down at times during his postgame pressers.
However, the Lions’ losses were never due to a lack of effort as the team continued to compete for their head coach every Sunday.
Detroit put itself in a great position to take a step forward as Pro Football Focus gave the organization an A- during the offseason and an A+ for the draft.
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Let’s look at those moves and assess what we can glean in terms of their 2022 win total.
Lions offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Added C Evan Brown and WRs D.J. Chark Jr., Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond on offense.
- The defense added edge rusher Charles Harris and safeties Tracy Walker III and C.J. Moore.
- The Lions selected the highest-rated player in the draft in Michigan, DE Aidan Hutchinson (No. 2).
- Added Alabama WR Jameson Williams (No. 12), Kentucky OL Joshua Paschal (No. 46), Illinois safety Kerby Joseph (No. 97), Virginia tight end James Mitchell (No. 177), Oklahoma State linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez (No. 188), Jackson State’s edge rusher James Houston (No. 217), and Arizona State cornerback Chase Lucas (No. 237).
Detroit Lions 2022 schedule
Week 1: vs. Eagles
Week 2: vs. Commanders
Week 3: @ Vikings
Week 4: vs. Seahawks
Week 5: @ Patriots
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: @ Cowboys
Week 8: vs. Dolphins
Week 9: vs. Packers
Week 10: @ Bears
Week 11: @ Giants
Week 12: vs. Bills
Week 13: vs. Jaguars
Week 14: vs. Vikings
Week 15: @ Jets
Week 16: @ Panthers
Week 17: vs. Bears
Week 18: @ Packers
NFL betting lines: Lions win total O/U
6.5 wins (FanDuel)
There’s some optimism around the Lions this season as we even see some juice to the over 6.5 on their win total at -125. After all, Detroit’s Pythagorean expectation suggested some positive regression as it should’ve been closer to a five-win season.
Given the upgrades on both sides of the ball, I think the Lions have a better chance to turn some of those coin-flip games into actual wins on their ledger.
What impressed me the most about the Lions’ offseason was their concerted approach to addressing their areas of weakness, such as the secondary, wide receiver, and both offensive and defensive lines.
Every move Detroit made had a clear plan and strategy, which should set them up nicely in the coming years beyond this season.
And while quarterback Jared Goff has faced his share of criticism, he’s one of a handful of quarterbacks still in the league to have played in a Super Bowl. Goff should benefit immensely from the Lions’ improved talent at the wide receiver position.
According to Action Network’s predictive analyst Sean Koerner, the Lions have the fourth softest schedule for the upcoming season. Add it all up and it bodes well for Detroit to go over 6.5 wins and be a surprise team in the NFC North.
Lions O/U 6.5 wins: The pick
Over 6.5 wins
Expert best bets, futures, and props
D’Andre Swift under 850.5 rushing yards (FanDuel)
D’Andre Swift has yet to play an entire season in his two years in the NFL. The former Georgia running back has dealt with injuries to his groin and shoulder, and missed time with a concussion.
As a result, Swift has just eight starts in 26 games over two seasons. Even when he does play, Swift generally has a limited role in the offense, with only 20 or more touches in four career games.
Being an NFL player also means being available to play on Sundays. And I’ll admit, I’m starting to think the Lions are also questioning whether they can count on Swift to be their primary running back.
Detroit can still utilize Jamaal Williams as their workhorse, and I was impressed by what they got out of Craig Reynolds, who averaged over 4.0 yards per carry on 55 attempts last season.
I think we can expect to see Reynolds get more touches, and if Detroit is in a better position to control more of their games, Williams will be getting the bulk of the second-half carries.
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When you factor in Detroit’s investment at the wide receiver position, I don’t believe they are making a renewed commitment to running the ball after finishing 21st with a run play rate of 40.44%. This all points to Swift going under 850.5 rushing yards in 2022.