Rocket Mortgage Classic first-round predictions: Russell Henley may lead early

We’ve reached our final set of plays for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, meaning it’s time to throw our darts!

Our first-round leader streak ended at one last week. After hitting Cameron Young at the Open, we failed to identify Scott Piercy as the first-round leader at TPC Twin Cities. But, I’ve once again selected four players to back in this market at Detroit Golf Club.

Based on weather reports, it appears those players going off early will have an advantage, a key part of my handicap.

With that in mind, here are the four players I’m targeting at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Rocket Mortgage first-round predictions

First-Round Leader Bet #1 – Denny McCarthy (+4500)

McCarthy has played terrific golf of late, posting three top-10’s in his last four starts.

More importantly, McCarthy has finished Thursday T-10th or better in two of those four starts. Plus, in his most recent start at the John Deere, he finished Thursday T-5th only four shots off the opening round pace.

Although he doesn’t own the greatest course history at Detroit GC — a MC in 2021 to pair with a T-21st in 2019 — McCarthy ranks out very well in my first-round statistical model. Over his last eight opening rounds, he’s sixth overall in the field.

3

Over that span, McCarthy’s biggest advantages lie around the greens. He’s 10th in birdies or better gained, ninth in both SG: Par 5’s and SG: Par 4’s – 350 to 400 yards and fourth or better in both putting metrics.

Additionally, McCarthy is fifth in SG: Total and first in SG: Putting over his last eight opening rounds. Further, McCarthy tends to do well on Donald Ross designs — over his last 12 rounds on qualifying tracks, he’s seventh in SG: Total and first in SG: Putting.

For those reasons, I’ll back McCarthy at what I consider to be a great price.

First-Round Leader Bet #2 – Russell Henley (+5500)

Frankly, I’m shocked at this number on Henley, who I rate much higher than his odds suggest.

This season on tour, Henley is tied for fourth in first-round scoring and third overall amongst players with at least 17 rounds. Plus, this area appears to be a natural strong-suit of Henley’s game as he ranked T-11th in first-round scoring last season.

In terms of my statistical model, Henley ranks fourth overall in my 12-round model and first overall in my 24-round projection.

Just in terms of the latter model, Henley is first overall in good drives gained, GIRs gained and birdies or better gained. He also ranks fourth in SG: Approach and seventh overall in SG: Par 5’s.

3

Additionally, it’s worth mentioning that — over his last 12 opening rounds on courses where scoring is “easy” — Henley is second in the field in SG: Total while leading the field in SG: Ball Striking.

If the Georgia product can just get his putter going, he should have a great chance to lead after Thursday in Detroit. Play him at +4500 or better.

First-Round Leader Bet #3 – Wyndham Clark (+6000)

Regular readers of this column will know Clark has burned me plenty before, but I’m not prepared to give up on him.

Over his last 12 opening rounds, Clark ranks third in the field in SG: Total and sits fifth in the field in SG: Putting. Plus, he’s 16th in that span in birdies or better gained and 21st in bogey avoidance. He’s also tied for ninth in first-round scoring on tour this season.

In terms of his output in my statistical modeling, Clark ranks seventh in the field in my eight-round model. Over that span, Clark is most impressive when it comes to his birdie record — he leads the field in birdies or better gained — and on approach — 19th in SG: Approach.

Clark also ranks 13th in putting from five to 10 feet and 22nd in proximity from 100-125 yards.

Lastly, Clark owns a decent record at Detroit GC. In his lone appearance in 2019, he finished in a tie for 17th. As for his opening round, he fired a four-under 68, five shots off the pace that year.

Given his early tee time, expect another strong Thursday performance from Clark.

3

First-Round Leader Bet #4 – Lee Hodges (+10000)

This is purely a value bet as my model rates Hodges much higher than his odds suggest.

Over his last eight opening rounds, Hodges ranks 19th overall in my statistical model. Although he lacks strength on approach (67th in SG: Approach), there are a lot of other positives to take into account. For example, he’s 13th in good drives gained, 15th in GIRs gained and 17th in birdies or better gained.

Additionally, if you consider Hodges’s last 24 opening rounds, he ranks eighth overall in birdies or better gained, so we know he’s capable of scoring in favorable conditions. Further, if you consider his last eight opening rounds on courses with “easy” scoring conditions, he ranks ninth in the field in birdies or better gained.

Although Hodges doesn’t own a spectacular finishing record in recent weeks, his first-round outputs remain strong. Dating back to the Charles Schwab Challenge, Hodges brings a first-round scoring average of 68.33 to the Rocket Mortgage. That’s down almost a stroke-and-a-half for his season-long first-round scoring average.

For all those reasons, I’m willing to take a flier on Hodges at 100/1. Although a lot has to go right, his ability to make birdies quickly should give bettors a chance to cash this ticket.