Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Houston Texans.
Houston Texans (+30000 to win Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 record: 4-13, 3rd in AFC South
The Texans remain in a deep rebuild. Apart from Laremy Tunsil and Brandin Cooks – objectively the team’s two best players – they have no one on the roster who will count more than $6.3 million against the cap this season. That includes quarterback Davis Mills, the team’s third-round selection in 2021, who put together some solid play down the stretch last year. The jury is still out on Mills, but even if he continues to improve, this is a team that lacks talent on both sides of the ball. Despite being in the weak AFC South, they should be closer to the No. 1 pick than playoff contention in 2022.
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Texans offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Hired Lovie Smith as head coach, replacing David Culley.
- Drafted LSU CB Derek Stingley (No. 3), Texas A&M G Kenyon Green (No. 15), Baylor S Jalen Pitre (No. 37), Alabama WR John Metchie III (No. 44, out for the year following leukemia diagnosis), Alabama LB Christian Harris (No. 75)
- Traded QB Deshaun Watson to Browns.
- Signed CB Steven Nelson, DE Jerry Hughes, DE Mario Addison.
Houston Texans 2022 schedule
Week 1: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 2: @ Denver Broncos
Week 3: @ Chicago Bears
Week 4: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Week 5: @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: @ Las Vegas Raiders
Week 8: vs. Tennessee Titans
Week 9: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 10: @ New York Giants
Week 11: vs. Washington Commanders
Week 12: @ Miami Dolphins
Week 13: vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 14: @ Dallas Cowboys
Week 15: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 16: @ Tennessee Titans
Week 17: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 18: @ Indianapolis Colts
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NFL betting lines: Texans win total O/U
4.5 wins (FanDuel)
The Texans’ 4.5 is the lowest win total of any team this offseason. Houston has an extremely young roster: two of their top three pass catchers (Nico Collins, Brevin Jordan) are 23 or younger, as is Mills. Three rookies (Green, Stingley, Pitre) are expected to start Day 1, and fourth-round running back Dameon Pierce figures to work in with Rex Burkhead and Marlon Mack, if not earn the lion’s share of the snaps outright.
Lovie Smith has had success as a head coach, but most of it was over a decade ago with the Bears, and it remains to be seen how he will fare with a roster this raw and unproven. However, the Texans defense he ran in 2021 actually did well considering the talent, coming in at 23rd overall in DVOA when many expected them to be dead last. Smith’s defensive principles should remain in place, while adding Nelson and drafting Stingley (who has sky-high upside) will shore up the secondary and keep this team in games.
On offense, everything depends on Mills, who doesn’t have the draft pedigree but played better than many of the first-rounders last year and put some nice throws on tape. Pep Hamilton was promoted from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator, so Mills shouldn’t have to learn a new system and can instead focus on developing within the one he already knows. Houston plays in a weak division with Jacksonville, which recently picked No. 1 overall (though is expected to improve); Tennessee, which lives and dies by 28-year-old running back Derrick Henry; and Indianapolis, which has its fifth new starting quarterback in as many years in Matt Ryan. They face the meat-grinder AFC West but also the mid-tier NFC East.
It could all flop spectacularly, and the Texans could be picking their next signal-caller at the top of next year’s draft, but with the price so low for the over here, it’s worth taking a shot on Mills being good enough to make this team something other than the worst in the league.
Texans O/U 4.5 wins: The pick
Over 4.5 wins
Expert best bets, futures and props
Brandin Cooks over 950.5 yards (FanDuel)
Death, taxes and Brandin Cooks going over 1,000 yards on the season. He’s done it with Tom Brady. He’s done it with Jared Goff, Drew Brees, and Deshaun Watson. Last year, he did it with Mills and Tyrod Taylor splitting time. The only time he didn’t do it was his rookie year and in a bizarre 2019 season with the Rams – and after everyone wrote him off that year, he came back and did it two more times in Houston.
He’s still on the right side of 30 (will be 29 in September), and while the team expects a jump from Nico Collins, their third-round pick this year, Metchie III, is likely to miss the season after a shocking leukemia diagnosis. Therefore, expecting Cooks to command less than a 20-22 percent target share seems silly. If he stays healthy – which he has done a remarkable job of throughout his career, only missing four games since 2014 – he should have no problem clearing this number.
