The 2022-23 English Premier League season begins Aug. 5 with a match between Arsenal and Crystal Palace.
Manchester City currently sits as an odds-on favorite at BetMGM at -160 with Liverpool as the clear second-choice at +275. Tottenham (12/1) and Chelsea (14/1) round out the top four.
It’s pretty clear that bookmakers view the title hunt as a two-team race, but there’s much more betting drama in the market for the Golden Boot, which is given to the player who scores the most goals in a given season.
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Budding superstar Erling Haaland, about to embark on his first Premier League season after transferring to Man City, is the betting favorite at +250, but he’s got plenty of company at the top of the board in the form of three-time winners Mo Salah (+450) and Harry Kane (+600). Just behind them is Heung-min Son, who split the award with Salah last season, and Cristiano Ronaldo, both 10/1.
Rather than focus on the favorites, I’ve highlighted a trio of players at longer odds who should provide good betting value in the race for the Golden Boot:
Golden Boot Best Bets
Diogo Jota, Liverpool (25/1)
Even though he will be competing with Salah, Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez for goals on his own team, that’s nothing new for Jota, who bagged 15 goals as the third wheel behind Salah and the now departed Sadio Mane for Liverpool in 2021-22.
With Mane gone, Jota’s role should expand after a season where he finished third in the Premier League in expected goals per 90 (xG/90). And while Salah will still likely be the focal point for Jurgen Klopp’s attack, the Reds score enough as a team for a couple of players to get into the Golden Boot race.
Callum Wilson, Newcastle (33/1)
Few strikers in the Premier League find themselves in a better position than Wilson for the upcoming season. Not only is Wilson the clear No. 1 striker for his team, but Newcastle has spent the last two transfer windows bringing in talented players to join Wilson in the Northeast. Before last season, Newcastle’s attack looked like a one-way street through Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin, but now there’s plenty of creative players to supply the big man up top.
Wilson scored 0.52 goals per 90 minutes on mediocre Newcastle teams the last two seasons, so imagine what he can do now that the Magpies are expected to contend for a spot in Europe in 2022-23.
Phil Foden, Manchester City (66/1)
One of the game’s best young talents, all signs are pointing to a breakout season from Foden in 2022-23. The England international has bagged nine goals in 28 matches in each of his last two seasons, but that number has a lot of room to grow.
Not only is Foden just hitting his prime, but he’ll have less competition for playing time with Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus now at different clubs. So even though this may seem like a counterintuitive bet with Golden Boot favorite Haaland in town, Foden’s upside and an increase in role should give him plenty of runway to threaten the 20-goal mark this season.