3M Open predictions: Odds and picks as Tony Finau leads pair of matchup bets

Only a day separates golf bettors from the start of the 3M Open as we wind down our set of best bets.

Yesterday, we outlined our favorite derivative bets for the event. Today, we’re turning our attention to the matchups. This week, as a result of a small matchup board, I’ve settled on two head-to-head picks that give bettors decent value.

In both cases, my statistical model supports these players as rightful favorites and (potentially) shorter than they should be. So, without further delay, here are my two best matchup bets for the 3M Open. Odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

3M Open odds, predictions

Best Bet #1 – Tony Finau (-120) over Hideki Matsuyama

Finau and Matsuyama are situated first and second, respectively, in my 50-round projection, but recent form favors Finau.

Over each players’ last 12 qualifying rounds, Finau ranks out second in the field. As for Matsuyama, he arrives a disappointing 40th in the field based on my 12-round projection. Most alarmingly, Matsuyama ranks 81st in good drives gained, 114th in GIRs gained, 100th in putting from 10 to 15 feet and 119th in SG: Par 5’s.

On the flip-side, Finau carries only one big concern in his 12-round statistical model — 75th in putting from 10 to 15 feet — but is otherwise strong across the board. He’s second in the field in SG: Approach, third in birdies or better gained and seventh in bogey avoidance. Additionally, Finau ranks 17th in GIRs gained and 23rd in good drives gained.

Further, Finau owns a great historical record at TPC Twin Cities. Since the event debuted in 2019, the two-time PGA Tour winner has played each year and finished no worse than 28th, including a third-place finish in 2020. As for Matsuyama, he hasn’t appeared in Minnesota since 2019, when he finished in a tie for seventh.

One additional element I’m considering is that Finau has more experience this season at correlated courses — 13th at the Travelers, 41st at the Wells Fargo — which should aid him a course that appears to suit his eye.

For all those reasons, play the American at -135 or better.

Best Bet #2 – Emiliano Grillo (-130) over Rickie Fowler

Much like the first matchup, these two players are wide apart in terms of their recent form.

Over his last 12 qualifying rounds, Grillo projects out 18th in my statistical model. On the flip-side, Fowler is a distant 109th in the field. In terms of his individual category outlays, Grillo is most impressive in three key areas. He’s fourth in SG: Par 5’s, fifth in birdies or better gained and eighth in GIRs gained. Additionally, Grillo is a steady 23rd in SG: Par 4’s and 37th in good drives gained.

As for Fowler, there’s little to like about his fit at TPC Twin Cities. He’s 128th in good drives gained, 105th in SG: Approach and 119th in GIRs gained. Further, he’s 59th in birdies or better gained, 128th in bogey avoidance and 132nd in SG: Par 4’s.

---

Betting on golf?

• Check out the best golf betting sites
• Read our guide on how to bet on golf
• Use the North Carolina betting apps

---

Just so you’re not suspicious I’m doing selective reporting, know that Grillo is ahead in both the 24-round projection (17th vs. 84th) and the 50-round output (44th vs. 79th).

Grillo also owns better finishing form and a superior record at TPC Twin Cities. In his last four starts, Grillo has a second and a 28th to pair with two missed cuts while Fowler has a 47th, 57th and 64th to pair with a missed cut. Plus, even though Fowler finished T-34th at TPC Twin Cities last year, Grillo owns a T-3rd finish in 2020.

For those reasons, back the Argentine up to -140.