British Open golf picks, predictions: Dustin Johnson leads quartet of first-round leader bets

We’re down to our third and final set of picks for the Open Championship.

Regular readers of this column will know what that means — time to break out our best darts and sturdy dart board as we attempt to nail the first-round leader. This week, I’m staying away from the favorites as my quartet of plays starts at 50/1 and features three players at better than 80/1 odds.

So, without further delay, here are my best first-round leader bets for the Open Championship. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

British Open golf picks, predictions to lead first round at St. Andrews

Best Bet #1 – Dustin Johnson (+5000)

As a result of his LIV defection, DJ arrives at St. Andrew’s potentially a little out of sight and mind, but there are good reasons to back him in this market.

Recall the 2015 Open Championship at this track where DJ finished as the first-round leader and closed out Friday atop the leaderboard before imploding with a pair of 75’s on the weekend. Plus, in the two majors this year in which he made the cut, DJ has a great first-round record — he was two shots off the pace at both the Masters and U.S. Open.

In terms of my statistical modeling, Johnson profiles out much better than his 50/1 price suggests. Across his last 12 qualifying opening rounds, the two-time major winner sits fourth overall in the field.

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Most impressively, Johnson is ninth in SG: Par 4’s, seventh in SG: Approach and fifth in driving distance in that projection. He’s also second in birdies or better gained and ninth in SG: Short Game.

For those reasons, back Johnson’s great price at a course that appears to suit his eye.

Best Bet #2 – Cameron Young (+8000)

I have no idea what bettors will get from Young’s Open Championship debut, but this feels like a good compromise based on his modeling.

Across his last eight qualifying opening rounds, Young rates out seventh overall in my first-round model. His biggest weakness in that statistical profile — 90th in GIRs gained — should be mitigated by the large Old Course greens. Beyond that, Young arrives with a great statistical profile.

He’s third in driving distance and 32nd in SG: Approach over that span and, perhaps most importantly, profiles out very well in birdies gained and three-putt avoidance. In that same eight-round span, he’s seventh in the field in birdies or better gained and ninth in bogey avoidance.

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Plus, Young has a great track record of late in terms of strong Thursday outputs. He was tied for the first-round lead at the Memorial and held the outright first-round lead at the RBC Heritage.

Lastly, Young ranks 23rd on tour this season in first-round scoring average. For all those reasons, 80/1 feels like a good buy-in price on Young.

Best Bet #3 – Wyndham Clark (+10000)

Clark is perhaps my favorite hidden gem this week at St. Andrew’s and profiles very well as the first-round leader.

Clark ranks second in the field in my eight-round projection and sits fifth overall in my 12-round sample. In the latter model, there’s a lot that stands out about Clark. For example, he’s second overall in the field in driving distance, seventh in SG: Par 4’s and 12th in birdies or better gained.

Clark is also a respectable 31st in both SG: Approach and three-putt avoidance while ranking first in the field in SG: Short Game. Further, Clark is eighth on tour in first-round scoring average and held the first-round lead at the RBC Canadian Open. Further, Clark was only a shot behind the leaders at the Memorial.

Plus, although he eventually finished MC-35th at the respective events, Clark was within four shots of the lead at both the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship.

Bottom-line: Clark rates out much better than his 100/1 odds suggest, so I’m willing to back him at a steep price.

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Best Bet #4 – Russell Henley (+10000)

There are reasons Henley has earned this 100/1 price, but there are enough positives that I’m willing to take a flier.

First off, Henley ranks fourth overall on tour in first-round scoring average and has fired an opening round of even par or better in eight of 11 events this calendar year. Henley has also established himself as a bit of an opening-round wizard as he ranked 11th on tour last season in first-round scoring.

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In terms of his modeling output, Henley is a solid bet. Across his last 12 qualifying opening rounds, Henley sits 15th in the field. Although he doesn’t have a lot of distance off the tee — 96th in driving distance — the rest of his game is quite reliable. He’s 18th in the field in SG: Approach, sixth in SG: Par 4’s and ninth in birdies or better gained.

Henley also has a great short game in this model — 21st in SG: Short Game — and is a respectable 41st in the field in three-putt avoidance.

Given all those trends, I’m willing to take a stab with Henley in the triple-digits.