I must admit that I was a bit pessimistic about the Mets’ chances in this upcoming series against the Braves. After all, we’ve repeatedly seen Atlanta put together a hot streak to regain control in the division after getting off to a slow start on the year.
This season, the Braves find themselves in a similar scenario, as they trailed the Mets by as many as 10.5 games heading into June.
On Monday, New York’s lead was down to 1.5 games, but a big performance from future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer helped the Mets to extend their lead to 2.5 games with a 4-1 victory.
Tuesday’s matchup features two young pitchers, with New York’s David Peterson and Atlanta’s Spencer Strider set to face off. Strider has yet to start against the Mets, but they have six plate appearances against him.
As for Peterson, he already has five starts under his belt against Atlanta.
My model gives the Mets a better chance to win this game compared to the current market odds. However, I’m not sure I trust Peterson in such a high-leverage spot against this divisional rival.
As a result, I’m going to make a case for the total and why we could see plenty of runs in this contest.
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Mets vs. Braves MLB odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Moneyline: NYM (+135) vs. ATL (-165)
Spread: NYM +1.5 (-145) vs. ATL -1.5 (+120)
Total: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Mets vs. Braves probable pitchers
David Peterson (3.48) vs. Spencer Strider (2.60)
Mets vs. Braves prediction
Peterson comes into this contest at 5-1 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Yet, while those numbers are pleasing to the eyes, his advanced metrics could point to a slight regression given his 3.71 xERA and a 4.01 FIP. Peterson faced the Braves in May and allowed four runs in five innings. However, he still picked up the victory after New York staked him to a 5-1 lead in the fourth inning.
One thing to keep in mind for this game is Atlanta’s success against left-handers. After all, the Braves rank fifth with 33 home runs, fourth with a .342 wOBA, and third with a .200 ISO.
According to our Action Labs database, Peterson’s been a profitable pitcher for over bettors as they’re 21-15-1 for 4.74 units in his starts.
Moreover, the total is 12-6 for 5.20 units when he pitches on the road.
If we turn to the Mets’ offense, only four of their hitters have faced Strider, and in those meetings, New York is 2-for-5 with a .596 wOBA and a .602 xSLG. While the sample size is undoubtedly limited, New York’s offensive numbers are among the best in baseball. The Mets rank fifth with a wRC+ value of 111 and fourth with a .255 batting average.
Overall, Strider has pitched well for the Braves as he’s 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. His advanced numbers are also promising, considering his 2.64 xERA and 1.83 FIP.
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One reason why Strider has such favorable numbers is because of his strikeouts. The right-hander is averaging 13.98 punch-outs per nine innings. However, he only has three pitches in his arsenal as he utilizes a four-seam fastball (68.5 percent), a slider (26.4 percent), and a changeup (5.1 percent).
While there’s no question that Strider has elite stuff, given his 98 mph fastball, I think a quality offense like New York can have success against him as the game wears on. If the Mets can do their part to contribute a few runs, the over should be within reach in this game.
Atlanta is also coming off a one-run performance, and historically, when facing a divisional opponent in this spot, the total is 49-40-5 to the over for 7.3 units.
Although I don’t often play a ton of overs due to their variance, I don’t mind playing alternate totals to add a bit of insurance.
As a result, I’ll look to grab an alternate total of over 7.5/-140 over at BetMGM.
Mets vs. Braves pick
ALT total ‘over’ 7.5 runs (-140) via BetMGM
Bonus pick:
Braves F5 RL -0.5 (-130) via BetMGM