Former Mets ace Noah Syndergaard will take the hill again for the Angels Tuesday night, this time against the Houston Astros (9:39 p.m. ET).
The Astros are normally one of the most vaunted lineups in all of baseball. However, the lineup is now missing Yordan Alvarez, who is on the injured list due to wrist inflammation.
The lineup downgrade for the Astros evens this matchup a tad, as evidenced by the odds. At the time of writing, BetMGM had tonight’s game as nearly a pick ’em. At the end of the day, tonight’s game will come down to the pitching matchup.
Luis Garcia will be on the hill for Houston, carrying his nearly identical 3.81 ERA compared to Syndeergaard’s 3.84.
Astros vs. Angels odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: HOU -1.5 (+135) vs. LAA +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline: HOU (-125) vs. LAA (+105)
Total: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Astros vs. Angels probable pitchers
Luis Garcia (7-5, 3.81) vs. Noah Syndergaard (5-7,3.84)
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Astros vs. Angels prediction
Syndergaard has been pitching better of late. In fact, aside from getting bombed by the Yankees and Rangers this year, he has been above average compared to most standards.
It is unlikely that Syndergaard will ever return to his age-23 season six years ago when he dominated baseball and had a WAR of 6.0. However, there is still plenty of room for him to be a solid pitcher in today’s game. His ERA in his last five starts is 3.60, which is about on-par with his season-long numbers.
What he used to do with the Mets was work deep into games. It would appear that these days, that depends mostly on whether he is hunting for strikeouts. Below are Syndergaard’s stats when he has worked into the sixth inning or longer in order of recent to latest:
- VS. CHW: 7 IP, 7 K’s, 3 ER, 1 BB
- VS. KC: 7.1 IP 5 K’s, 5 ER, 2 BB
- VS. BOS: 6.0 IP, 3 K’s, 1 ER, 1 BB
- VS. TEX: 8 IP, 5 K’s, 1 ER, 0 BB
- @ BOS: 7 IP, 3 K’s, 1 ER, 1 BB
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Aside from his most recent tilt against the White Sox, Syndergaard has not struck out five batters or more in any outing that he’s registered a quality start. Even in that start against the Kansas City Royals, Syndergaard was pitching very well before being pushed too deep into the game in the seventh and eighth innings.
His strikeout total for 4.5 is plus money but not worth a bet, given the Astros strikeout the least as a team in the MLB. In fact, neither strikeout total profiles very much value.
The Astros’ Garcia has a strikeout total that could be laddered on FanDuel (8+ is paying +250) but his total of 5.5 (-150) is not a play tonight. This is even with the Angels striking out the most of any team in baseball.
The true bet to target for tonight’s game is going to come on the home underdog Angels. Adjusting to life without Alvarez for at least a few weeks could be a bit of culture shock for Houston. Without their MVP-contending slugger, the Astros lineup will have a gaping hole in the middle of it.
As an underdog, the Angels are a fine bet. Especially with Syndergaard pitching significantly better at home than on the road (2.62 ERA in 44.2 IP at home vs. 5.96 ERA in 25.2 IP on the road).
Astros vs. Angels MLB pick today
Angels moneyline +105 (BetMGM)