Think of teams like stocks. Which are up? Which are down? Keep an eye on volatility because it is going to impact the trade deadline.
The 2021 Cubs were 38-27 on June 13 and tied for first in the NL Central. They lost 19 of the next 25 going into the All-Star break and traded Joc Pederson on July 15. They executed seven more deals before the deadline, including sending away championship-core players Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo.
The Nationals last year were 40-38 through June 30. They were 2 ½ games behind the Mets. They were a recent champ with a big payroll and no desire to become sellers. Then they lost 16 of 21, and on July 29, began a two-day, six-trade, eight-player selloff highlighted by moving Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers.
A bad run or a good run is going to influence teams. Not long ago, for example, it was unclear whether the Mariners, Phillies and Red Sox would be sellers. But since June 1, they had three of the majors’ seven best records, and all now are currently in buy mode. Plus, there are plenty of downtrodden teams still trying to give themselves the chance to be the 2019 Nationals, who began 19-31 and won it all, or the 2021 Braves, who opened 30-35 en route to a title.
