Scottish Open odds, predictions: Four best first-round leader bets

We’re down to our final set of picks for the Scottish Open, meaning it’s time to throw some darts!

As is tradition, we end our golf picks with our favorite first-round leader bets before Thursday’s opening round. This week, it appears that the weather report gives an advantage to those players going off in the morning — higher winds are expected Thursday afternoon in North Berwick.

So, I settled on the following four players based on that factor as well as their statistical profiles and course history. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Best Bet #1 – Cameron Smith (+3200)

Smith cashed a FRL ticket for us a few weeks back at the Memorial and should be primed for another good opening round at The Renaissance Club.

Just over his last eight opening rounds, the Aussie ranks 11th overall in my statistical model. However, he’s above average in both birdies or better gained (fifth) and three-putt avoidance (eighth). Expand the sample to his last 24 opening rounds and prospective bettors will find Smith leads the field in birdies or better gained and sits third in three-putt avoidance.

Smith has also seen his approach numbers improve recently. In my 12-round projection, he’s 44th in the field in SG: Approach and 31st in GIRs gained. However, just across his last eight opening rounds, he’s 22nd and 15th, respectively, in those same metrics.

Lastly, Smith is eighth on the PGA Tour this season in opening-round scoring a year after leading the tour in that category.

Best Bet #2 – Will Zalatoris (+4800)

I’m already exposed on Zalatoris as a result of my favorite derivative bets, but this price is too good to pass up.

Across his last eight opening rounds, Zalatoris projects out third in my statistical model. Most notably, he’s second in both strokes-gained: approach and birdies or better gained. Plus, he’s 13th in strokes-gained: par 5’s, 26th in three-putt avoidance and 29th in putting between 10 and 15 feet.

Although those 5 to 10 footers still remain nervy for the Wake Forest product — 104th in the field from that distance — Zalatoris isn’t having to scramble a lot as he’s eighth in the field in GIRs gained. Plus, although it’s a small sample, there’s something to be said about the fact Zalatoris never shot an over-par round last year at The Renaissance Club, including an opening-round 69.

Lastly, Zalatoris is tied for 26th on tour this season in first-round scoring a year after finishing in a tie for 32nd. For all those reasons, I would play Zalatoris at 40/1 or better.

Best Bet #3 – Joaquin Niemann (+5500)

Like Cam Smith, Niemann is another player that doesn’t have experience at The Renaissance Club, but should fit it well.

Over his last 12 opening rounds, Niemann leads the field in my statistical projection. Expand the sample set to his previous 24 rounds and the Chilean still ranks eighth in the field.

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In terms of the former projection, though, there is little Niemann doesn’t do well. He’s second in birdies or better gained, third in SG: Par 5’s and seventh in both three-putt avoidance and GIRs gained. He’s also 20th or better in driving distance (19th), SG: Approach (13th), SG: Around the Green (14th) and SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards (17th).

Lastly, Niemann ranks third on tour this season in first-round scoring behind only Matt Kuchar and Rory McIlroy. As a result, I believe this price is a great find and worth a sprinkle.

Best Bet #4 – Haotong Li (+6500)

Bettors will remember Li from the 2020 PGA Championship, where he held the lead after Friday following a 67-65 start.

Although he’s a bit of a boom/bust candidate for this market, there are a few reasons worth backing him. Over his last 12 qualifying opening rounds, Li ranks fourth in the field in three-putt avoidance while sitting 15th overall in birdies or better gained. He’s also demonstrated an ability to score on the par 5’s as he’s second in the field in SG: Par 5’s.

Li also hits the ball a long way — 27th in driving distance — and is an incredibly reliable putter from short distances — third in the field between five and 10 feet.

Furthermore, Li has fired a 67 or better in three of his last five DP World Tour starts, including a 62 at the BMW International on his way to a win. Plus, in his last two starts at the Renaissance Club, Li has shot an under-par round both times.

All of that is to say that, at 65/1, I’m willing to take a flier on a player that’s riding a high coming into this event. Based on my modeling, I believe there’s a slight implied probability edge and that Li cashes this ticket more often than required to justify the price.