Well, here we go again. Kevin Durant wants out of Brooklyn but where is his most likely landing spot? Durant has already been linked to a few teams, so at this point, here are the strongest contenders for KD and how to get ahead of the betting market on a potential trade.
Can the Suns pull it off without trading Booker?
There were rumors around the league going back to the beginning of June that if things fell apart with the Nets, Durant’s preferred destination would be Phoenix.
The Suns opened at +950 to win the NBA title, a fairly preposterous number given their finish as the No. 1 team in the regular season and reporting that much of their incredibly bad second-round loss to the Mavericks could be linked to a COVID outbreak.
Following the news of Durant’s request and Yahoo’s Chris Haynes’ report on a potential Suns connection, the odds moved as low as +250, before settling back to +650.
There have already been reports indicating that the Nets won’t accept a deal for Durant that does not include Devin Booker. Let me go ahead and let you know that while the Nets no doubt want Booker in a potential deal, the Suns won’t be trading him after just giving him the supermax contract.
If you’re adding Kevin Durant, you’re looking to win a title. You don’t give up the necessary pieces to win a title when you trade for Durant. The bar is being set, but that doesn’t mean Brooklyn won’t lower it if there aren’t other options.
Can the Raptors pull off another Kawhi-like trade?
Why not run it back again? Masai Ujiri took on a distressed star unhappy with his franchise in Kawhi Leonard and parlayed it into a championship before. The Raptors are always known to be swinging for the fences.
However, if you’re the Nets, you simply cannot begin a negotiation without Scottie Barnes in addition to one of Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam (likely a non-starter of an idea for Toronto), or OG Anunoby. Would the Nets take Anunoby and picks? Maybe. Is Ujiri likely to give up the multiyear unprotected hauls we’ve seen Dejounte Murray and Rudy Gobert go for? Likely not.
If Durant makes it known Toronto is his No. 1 spot, or No. 2, maybe this goes through. But very few, if any, executives have gotten the better of Ujiri.
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Can Pat Riley and the Heat catch another whale?
The Heat have already traded their 2025 pick and several second-rounders, making their ability to put massive pick offerings together slightly limited. Their best young player to send back is Tyler Herro. Furthermore, trying to put together the necessary salary for Durant without including Kyle Lowry or Bam Adebayo (a requirement for Durant, reportedly) would be difficult.
If Durant makes Miami the No. 1 destination and applies pressure, he could very well end up there. Adebayo can’t be traded to Brooklyn as long as Simmons is on the roster due to the designated rookie extension rule.
I have more confidence in Miami pulling the trigger on a deal and less confidence in the team doing it without moving Lowry. The Heat are the other team thought to be on Durant’s preference list along with Phoenix.
How to bet all of this: The title odds moved substantially on Phoenix after the trade demand came out, moving all the way to +650 where it’s settled; Phoenix was +950 at open at multiple books. The odds also moved on Miami down to 11/1.
Phoenix is unquestionably the best value right now for the simple fact that if Durant does go to the Suns for a deal that does not involve Booker (which I don’t believe it will), they’ll immediately move to the title favorites at somewhere south of the +550 for current co-favorite Boston (following the Malcolm Brogdon trade).
The 76ers have been rumored as a potential spot, but I don’t see Durant signing up for a James Harden reunion. The Sixers owe their 2023, 2025, and 2027 picks as well. I cannot see this one being bettable even with “never say never in the NBA.”
I think there’s a slight value on Toronto at anything 50/1 or higher because Ujiri is absolutely the type of guy to try and make another run at the 2019 Kawhi plan. The Raptors and Suns make the most sense right if you are trying to get ahead of the market.