2022 John Deere Classic odds, picks, predictions: Best matchup golf bets

Less than 24 hours separates golf bettors from the first tee shot at TPC Deere Run.

But before the John Deere Classic gets underway, we still have some best bets to share. Today’s focus is all about the matchups — one traditional head-to-head and a three-ball matchup — that provide good value based on my statistical model.

Without any further hesitation, here are the best matchup bets for the John Deere Classic. All odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to later movement.

Best Bet #1 – Maverick McNealy (-102) over Charles Howell III

Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

McNealy has proven a bit disappointing lately, but this track should suit his game quite well.

Prior to a missed cut at the Travelers, his last three events on courses under or slightly over 7,200 yards — RBC Heritage, Pebble Beach and the Sony Open — McNealy was never worse than 33rd. Further, in his last 12 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, McNealy ranks out 30th in my statistical model.

The Stanford product has all the tools to be successful this week at TPC Deere Run. He’s 24th in SG: approach, 11th in birdies or better gained and 14th in SG: Par 5’s. The one concern is his putter — 115th from five to 10 feet and 135th from 10 to 15 feet — but he’s gained strokes putting in two appearances at this event, so I’m not overly concerned.

As for Howell III, he’s coming off a T-35th at the Travelers on the heels of a T-18th at the Memorial, but his underlying metrics are a bit concerning. He lost strokes on approach in three of four rounds at TPC River Highlands and ranks 131st in that category across his last 12 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards.

Plus, he struggles to take advantage of the par 5’s on those courses (79th in SG: Par 5’s) and isn’t incredibly reliable when it comes to hitting fairways (60th in fairways gained).

For those reasons, I’d have this matchup rated closer to a pick ’em, so I’m happy to back McNealy at almost even money.

Best Bet #2 – J.T. Poston (+120) over Chad Ramey & Ryan Brehm

Odds via BetMGM

I’ve already outlined my love for Poston this week in my best derivative bets, but I’m doubling down in this matchup.

Across both his last eight and 12 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Poston ranks first overall in each statistical model. Further, he has two top-10 finishes in his last five events and three top-10’s in his last seven.

Not to mention the fact that he arrives at TPC Deere Run with a massive modeling advantage over Ramey & Brehm. In the 12-round projection, Ramey sits 76th in the field while Brehm is a horrific 150th. Just in each player’s last eight qualifying rounds, Ramey drops to 82nd while Brehm is still 150th.

Personally, I believe Ramey is the only player capable of challenging Poston in this three-ball matchup. However, it will be a steep climb to do so. Over his last 12 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Ramey ranks 83rd in fairways gained, 71st in SG: approach and 69th in birdies or better gained.

In all three of those categories, Poston ranks 66 spots better than Ramey. Furthermore, Ramey is a horrific putter — 97th or worse in both metrics — and doesn’t tend to take advantage at the Par 5’s — 57th in SG: Par 5’s.

Add in that Ramey has ZERO experience at TPC Deere Run and I would have Poston rated closer to -110 in this three-ball.