Now that we have crowned an NBA champion and the draft is behind us, it’s time to look ahead to next season. Odds have already been released for the NBA MVP futures market, and it’s not a surprise to see some familiar names topping the list.
BetMGM lists Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid as the +500 co-favorites to win next season’s MVP award , while Giannis Antetokounmpo (+700) and the two-time reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic (+900), are next in line.
Closely behind those four is Memphis guard Ja Morant at 10/1. A lot of money was bet on Morant to win this year’s MVP and that trend will likely continue with him becoming one of the NBA’s most popular players. Morant’s odds have already shortened from 14/1 to 10/1 in just a few days.
Jokic, Embiid and Antetokounmpo account for the top three in this year’s MVP voting, while Doncic came in fifth. Suns superstar Devin Booker finished fourth in this year’s voting and is sitting at 20/1 to be named the 2022-23 MVP.
Stephen Curry, who was recently named NBA Finals MVP, comes in at 13/1. He posted 31 points, six rebounds and five assists per game in the Warriors’ series victory over the Celtics.
Speaking of the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is listed at 15/1 to win MVP after an underwhelming Finals performance. Overall, he did have an excellent season, finishing sixth in the regular-season MVP voting. It won’t be a surprise to see the Celtics find similar success next year and for Tatum to once again be in the MVP discussion.
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Of course, no NBA MVP list would be complete without LeBron James. King James is listed at 25/1 to win his fifth MVP award. That gives James his longest odds since at least 2006-07, which is how far back SportsOddsHistory database goes back.
James’ odds to win MVP are behind nine other players at BetMGM, which is also the most he’s trailed since 2006. The truth is James has been one of the preseason favorites to win the award for the majority of his career.
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For 13 consecutive seasons stretching from 2006 to 2019, James was one of the top two favorites on the MVP oddsboard. He won the award four times: 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013. James was the preseason favorite each time he claimed the award.
James played in just 56 games but was extremely valuable when he was on the court. He scored 30.3 ppg to go along with 8.2 rebounds and 6.2 assists. However, the Lakers missed the playoffs as Anthony Davis was largely unavailable, James missed time and Russell Westbrook was ineffective.
Oddsmakers don’t expect the Lakers to automatically jump back into title contention next season. Los Angeles is 20/1 to win the title at BetMGM. Those are the longest title odds for a LeBron team since 2004-05 when the Cavaliers were 40/1. Cleveland was 75/1 in 2003-04, his rookie year.
For the first time since early in his career, James enters the season as an underdog to win both MVP and the NBA title. So, is he worth a bet? Probably not. Given James’ age and the increased probability he misses time due to injury, his odds are justified.
Instead of throwing money on an aging superstar, guys like Tatum, Booker and Trae Young (30/1) are better options at similar odds.