The New York Mets are sitting pretty with the best record and third-best run differential in the National League, but they find themselves as underdogs against the Miami Marlins on Friday night. The Fish, who sit 11.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East and are four games below .500, are currently sitting at -135 for the series opener at LoanDepot Park.
As you could probably surmise from the betting line, the Marlins have a distinct advantage in the starting pitching matchup on Friday. Miami’s starter, Sandy Alcantara, checks into Friday night as the +250 favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award, while the Mets will turn to Taijuan Walker.
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Marlins vs. Mets prediction (6:40 PM ET, Bally Sports)
And while Walker has been pretty effective when he’s been on the mound this season and sports a 2.88 ERA in 59.1 innings of work, there are some minor red flags for the veteran right-hander. Walker’s xFIP (3.95) is over a run higher than his ERA and his batted-ball profile suggests he’s benefited from quite a bit of luck this season. Walker ranks in the 14th percentile in hard-hit rate, the 25th percentile in average exit velocity and the 50th percentile in barrel percentage. Opponents are getting good wood against Walker, but he’s still been able to find success.
Alcantara’s 3.46 xFIP is also quite a bit higher than his 1.72 ERA, but the difference between the Marlins’ ace and Walker is that the disparity between the two metrics comes down to the way Alcantara induces weak contact. Despite striking out less than a batter per inning, Alcantara has dominated lineups thanks to his ability to avoid getting squared up. The 26-year-old right-hander ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity, the 86th percentile in hard hit rate and boasts the sixth-best ground-ball percentage among pitchers with at least 50 innings of work this season. Furthermore, no pitcher in the National League does a better job of keeping the ball in the yard than Alcantara, who is allowing 0.36 home runs per 9 innings.
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With the pitching matchup clearly pointing to Alcantara and not all that much separating these two offenses against right-handed pitching, there’s enough to get behind the Fish as a favorite on Friday night.
The Pick: Miami Marlins -135
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.