Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds, prediction, pick: Jordan Montgomery the key

Coming into the 2022 MLB season, the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees were essentially co-favorites to win the AL East. Bookmakers projected the teams to be neck and neck in the race for the division and their win tot

Two months into the season and the Yankees have seemingly left the Blue Jays in the dust. The Bombers head to Toronto this weekend with a 10-game lead and are now -550 favorites to win their 20th division title. Things can change quickly in the MLB, but if the Jays want to make this race interesting they’ll need to put a dent into the gap between them and the Pinstripes this weekend.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds, prediction (7:07 PM ET, YES Network)

The good news for the Blue Jays is that bookmakers view this game as essentially a toss up. That is quite the rarity for the Yankees this season. In fact, this is the first time since June 1 that the Yankees will close under -140 and, according to Action Labs, just the 15th game all season that the Bombers close under -150.

While that tells you a lot about how good the Yankees have been, it also says a lot about this Blue Jays team. No team is close to the Bombers in terms of current form — the Yanks have won seven in a row, 13 of 14 and 40 of their last 50 — but the Jays are also on a decent roll with wins in 15 of their last 21 games.

The Yankees will turn to Jordan Montgomery in Friday’s series opener and like every other pitcher on the staff, the 29-year-old southpaw has sparkled to start the campaign. Despite a low strikeout rate, Montgomery has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through 66.2 innings thanks to his ability to induce weak contact. Montgomery ranks in the 71st percentile in average exit velocity, 78th percentile in hard hit rate and 81st percentile in barrel rate. Montgomery is only walking 1.35 batter and allowing 0.81 home runs per 9 innings, both of which are significant improvements on his career metrics.

Some negative regression should be expected from Montgomery, as he’s posted a 3.81 xERA and 3.59 xFIP in his 12 starts and his .322 xwOBA grades out as just bang average.

The Blue Jays should also represent a pretty stiff challenge for Montgomery as Toronto ranks inside the top three in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. 

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Montgomery’s counterpart, Ross Stripling, actually profiles as a pretty similar pitcher to Monty, even if he throws with the other hand. Stripling doesn’t strike out many batters, but he limits walks, home runs and is decent at preventing hard contact. Stripling’s 54.3% ground-ball rate is the fifth-best mark in the Majors among pitchers with at least 40 innings of work on the season. 

With Stripling and Montgomery on the mound, this game profiles as a sneaky pitchers’ duel. Although neither starter is going to overpower the opposite lineup, both hurlers won’t give up cheap walks and are whizzes at getting out of jams thanks to their ability to keep the ball in play. 

Bookmakers know that bettors are going to expect offensive fireworks in this matchup — and that could come true — but this is a good spot to go against the grain. Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model projects this game for 8.73 runs, so there’s value on the under.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays pick

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Full-game Under 9.5