The Pirates and Braves will conclude a four-game series Sunday, but instead of looking at the side in this game, bettors should be targeting the total.
The starting pitching and other variables in this matchup point to under 8.5 runs (-105).
The first two games of the series were a 3-1 win for the Braves on Thursday followed by a 4-2 Atlanta victory Friday, and the matchup Sunday should look very similar.
Atlanta is sending Kyle Wright to the mound, while Pittsburgh is opting for Jose Quintana.
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Both of them have strong underlying metrics. In home games this season, Wright is allowing a .254 opponent batting average and a .224 slugging percentage. Plus, his ERA at home is just 2.62 with a WHIP of 0.92 and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
Quintana’s underlying road metrics are slightly worse than Wright’s home outputs, but are still solid. This season, he’s allowing an opponents’ batting average of .317 and a slugging percentage of just .333. Two of Quintana’s past three starts have stayed under this benchmark, while four straight starts from Wright have stayed under this pregame total.
In seven home starts from Wright this season, the under is 5-2. Look for these trends to continue.
The play: Pirates-Braves Under 8.5