Having already shared a statistical modeling strategy for the RBC Canadian Open, we can now focus on the picks.
We’ll begin, as always, with the derivative selections. This week, I’m targeting names further down the board — one top-20 and two top-40 selections — as I believe this event could be volatile and one that sees success from longshots.
With that said, let’s get into my three favorite derivative plays for the RBC Canadian Open at St. George’s Golf & Country Club.
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Best Bet #1 – Tony Finau Top-20 Finish (+110)
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Finau is widely regarded as a bomber who has success on longer courses, but he actually has played quite well on short setups.
Over his last 24 qualifying rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Finau ranks seventh in the field in strokes-gained: total and sits 10th in the field in strokes-gained: ball striking. Plus, Finau rates out very well in my model. Over the last 24 rounds, the former Ryder Cupper sits fifth overall.
The two causes for concern with Finau are his ability to hit fairways (88th in fairways gained) and his approach record (66th in SG: approach), but there’s a lot to like elsewhere. For example, Finau is seventh in birdies or better gained, eighth in three-putt avoidance, second in SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards and third in SG: Par 5’s.
At a course where Par 5 scoring is crucial in rising up the leaderboard, expect that latter stat to come in handy for Finau, who has the distance to reach in two and could make a number of low scores on those three holes.
Plus, he’s 20th in good drives gained and eighth in putting between five and 10 feet.
Finau also arrives at this event in solid form. He tied for fourth in his last outing at the Charles Schwab Challenge and owns two top-10 finishes in his last four events. Further, he’s made the cut in seven of his last eight events.
For those reasons, I would play Finau up to +100 for a top-20 finish. As an aside, I don’t hate a bet on a top-10 finish at +210 or better.
Best Bet #2 – Justin Rose Top-40 Finish (-125)
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
I’m sorry, but when did the market lose almost all respect for Rose, a former major winner?
Although Rose has missed the cut in four of his last five events, I believe this is the perfect time to buy low on the Englishman. A number of those missed cuts came on long courses that don’t suit Rose’s game, but he should be much more comfortable at St. George’s. Over his last 24 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Rose ranks 12th in the field in SG: Total.
Additionally, if you were to consider every player’s last 24 rounds on Par ’70s under 7,200 yards, Rose would rank second overall in the field in that statistical model as well as the 50-round projection. Just over his last 12 qualifying rounds, Rose ranks out eighth in the field.
In terms of the 24-round projection, Rose rates out 13th in good drives gained, 23rd in SG: approach, fifth in opportunities gained, and sixth in birdies or better gained. He’s also decent on the Par 5’s (30th in SG: Par 5’s) and sits 23rd in SG: putting – 10 to 15 feet.
Add in that Rose has finished inside the top-40 in four of his last five events on courses under 7200 yards — including two top-12 finishes — and I would play his top-40 market all the way up to -130.
Best Bet #3 – C.T. Pan Top-40 Finish (+105)
Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook
Certainly not the sexiest name on the odds board, but C.T. Pan has established himself as a reliable Tour player.
He’s now made the cut in seven consecutive events and nine of his last 10 outings. In those nine made cuts, he’s only posted four top-40 finishes but finished T41 and T42 in two of the five exceptions.
Pan also has a penchant for these short courses. In his most recent qualifying event — the Wells Fargo Championship — he finished tied for 15th. Including that result, Pan has two top-20 finishes in his last three events on tracks under 7,200 yards.
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This is also a player that rates out very well in my model. Over his last 24 rounds on Par 70s under 7,200 yards, Pan ranks out eighth in the field. Notably, he’s seventh in the field in SG: approach, 10th in SG: Par 5’s, 10th in SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards and 24th in opportunities gained.
Eliminate the “Par-70” qualifier, and bettors will find Pan ranks fifth in a 12-round sample size and 11th in a 24-round sample.
As a result, expect Pan to post a solid finish in Toronto.