MLB expert best bets for Wednesday: Phillies and Brewers are the picks
Sixteen games fill out today’s MLB betting card and Kenny Ducey of The Action Network is here to give a pair of best bets (video above).
The first game interesting Ducey is the series closer between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants, who has won the first two games of the series.
However, Ducey believes this is a rare spot to place trust in the Phillies.
MLB best bet today: Phillies moneyline -125 (BetMGM)
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“The Phillies are seventh in barrel rate over the last two weeks [and] top-10 in wRC+,” Ducey explains.
Against Giants starting pitcher Carlos Rodon, those statistical trends are hugely important. If there’s one area Rodon struggles with, it’s hard-hit balls. That’s further evidenced by the fact all three home runs Rodon has given up this season have come across his last three starts.
Plus, the Phillies are deploying ace Aaron Nola – who allowed one earned run while posting 10 strikeouts in his last start – to the mound Wednesday. Ducey expects a strong performance from Nola will mitigate a weak Philadelphia bullpen and is thus backing it to avoid a sweep.
MLB best bet today: Brewers moneyline -115 (Caesars)
For his second best bet, Ducey is heading out to Chicago for a matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs.
The Brewers are sending Jason Alexander, who spent five seasons in the minors, to the mound Wednesday. But, Ducey believes bettors are getting good value with Milwaukee largely because of Chicago’s pitching.
“Kyle Hendricks continues to decline this year,” Ducey says. “His ground-ball rate had never been lower than 41 percent…it is down to just over 36 percent.”
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On the flip-side, the Brewers are a top-10 team in avoiding ground balls and rank top-10 in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
For those reasons, take the Brewers (-108) over the Cubs, whose offense has proved unable to keep up with its poor starting pitching.