Memorial Tournament odds: four players to back for first-round leader

We’ve reached our final set of plays for the 2022 Memorial Tournament — the first-round leader!

The betting equivalent of blindly throwing some darts and hoping one hits the board, the first-round leader (FRL) market can be a tricky one to navigate. However, I’ve identified four players that I believe present bettors the best value to lead the tournament come Thursday night.

With that in mind, here are my four best bets in the market. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Bet #1 – Jon Rahm (+1800)

Although I’m rarely one to back the outright favorite to lead after day one, I’ll be kicking myself if Rahm is in fact the first-round leader and I didn’t bet it.

Although he shows up 23rd overall in my 24-round model, Rahm is significantly better in the opening round. Adding in that qualifier moves the 2021 US Open winner all the way up to third overall. That’s due in large part to his excellence in the following categories: good drives gained (12th), strokes-gained: approach (second), GIRs gained (first) and SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards.

It’s also worth mentioning Rahm is 15th in SG: Par 5’s and has played two consecutive opening rounds at Muirfield Village under par. In 2020 — the year he won — Rahm was tied for fifth at the end of day one after recording a T-12 finish last year.

Lastly, Rahm ranks 10th on the PGA Tour this season in first-round scoring average. In the 2021 season, the Spaniard finished second for the season in first-round scoring.

So although it’s a short price, I’m willing to take a stab with Rahm in the hopes he gets out to a strong start.

Bet #2 – Cameron Smith (+2600)

I’m choosing to buck the course history angle for Smith, who hasn’t produced many good showings at Muirfield Village.

In six starts at the Nicklaus design, Smith has missed the cut on four occasions and has never finished better than 65th in the two remaining outings. However, I’m a bit surprised by that record as Smith is someone who rates out very well in my model.

He’ll need to eliminate the wayward tee shots (76th in fairways gained over his last 24 opening rounds) to have a chance at the first-round lead, but there’s a lot to like elsewhere. In that same projection, Smith rates out 29th in SG: approach and 30th in GIRs gained.

Plus, he’s 10th or better in sand saves (first), SG: Par 5’s (sixth) and SG: Par 4’s — 450 to 500 yards (ninth). All those projections lead him to be fifth overall across his last 24 opening rounds.

There’s also the trend going in his favor that Smith led the PGA Tour last season in opening round scoring average and currently sits second in the same metric this season.

For those reasons, take a shot on the Aussie, who was within a shot of the first-round lead at the Masters and only three shots off the pace at the Players.

Bet #3 – Aaron Wise (+5000)

Much like Cam Smith, Wise is a bit of a wizard when it comes to the opening round.

He’s tied for seventh on tour in first-round scoring this season — a 55-spot improvement over his ranking last season — and is a player that models out very well for this tournament. Not only is he ninth overall in my 24-round projection, but he ranks 11th or better in my four-, eight-, 12- and 24-round projections that add in the “first round” qualifier.

Just in terms of the latter projection, Wise sits eighth overall in the field. There aren’t a lot of weaknesses to find either as Wise inside the top-50 in eight of 10 statistical measures. Most impressively, he’s eighth in good drives gained, 17th in both SG: approach and GIRs gained and 23rd in SG: Par 5’s.

Although he lacks experience finding his name near the top of the leaderboard at this specific event, there are positives to consider. Last year, he was an above-average player in all of the following categories — SG: putting, approach and off the tee.

Lastly, just in his last four tournaments, Wise has posted an under-par round in each opening round. For those reasons, I’m willing to back him at a decent number to get off to a strong start in Ohio.

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Bet #4 – Luke List (+8000)

As evidenced by this price, List is a bit of a boom-or-bust candidate for the opening round. In five starts at the Memorial, the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open winner has missed the cut three times. However, he’s finished T-10 and T-37 in the remaining two outputs. Just in the former, List posted a strong opening round (two-under 70) and found himself only four shots off the pace set by Tony Finau.

Although he doesn’t rate out very well in the full-tournament modeling, List does have some decent numbers in the opening-round modeling projections. He’s sixth and 10th, respectively, in strokes-gained approach and GIRs gained over his last 24 opening rounds and rates out 22nd overall in that projection. He also has a strong enough record on the Par 5’s (38th overall across his last 24 opening rounds in that measurement).

The worry with List is always the same — he can’t get his putter going and misses a bunch of scoring opportunities — but I’m hopeful his strong approach numbers mitigate that concern. Plus, over his last 24 opening rounds, List is 15th in the field in opportunities gained.

Based on those metrics, I believe List is worth a flier to end Thursday at the top of the leaderboard.