We’ve shared a statistical modeling approach for the Memorial, so now it’s time to start making some bets.
We’ll begin as always with the derivative selections for the week. I’ve identified three players for the Memorial who both model well and have good course history at Muirfield Village.
All of the following prices come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing. With that in mind, let’s dive into my best derivative bets for the Memorial.
Best Bet #1 – Xander Schauffele Top-10 Finish (+210)
I’ve been burned plenty by Schauffele over the last few years, but really like his chances at Muirfield Village.
After a missed cut in his debut appearance in 2018, Schauffele has gone on to finish T-14th, T-13th and T-11th in his last three starts at Muirfield Village. Plus, he’s gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in all three of those events while gaining around the green and in putting in two of those three most recent starts.
He also arrives at this event in good form. Over his last six starts, Schauffele has finished T13-MC-T12-MC-T5-T13. However, one of those missed cuts came at The Players, where Schauffele was on the bad end of the draw.
In terms of my model, Schauffele rates out quite highly. He’s first in the field over both his last 100 rounds and his last eight qualifying rounds. As for the last 24 rounds, Schauffele rates out second behind only Shane Lowry.
Examine that latter model more closely and bettors will find that Schauffele ranks third in good drives gained, 11th in strokes-gained: approach and fourth in greens in regulation gained. Plus, he ranks inside the top-25 percent of the field in sand saves, SG: Par 4’s – 450-500 yards, SG: Par 3’s – 200-225 yards and SG: around the green.
For all those reasons, expect a strong performance from Schauffele this week. If you want to be more conservative, I don’t hate the price (-105) on Schauffele to finish in the top-20.
Best Bet #2 – Max Homa Top-20 Finish (+170)
Homa is relatively inexperienced at Muirfield Village, but his most recent start here makes him a buy in my opinion.
At the 2021 Memorial. Homa tied for six after a missed cut in 2020 and a T37 in 2019. Although his around the green numbers are slightly concerning — the Wells Fargo winner has lost strokes in all three appearances — I’m encouraged by the fact he’s gained at least three strokes tee-to-green in two of three appearances here.
Plus, Homa showed an ability to play key holes well last year. He was fourth in the field in SG: Par 4’s – 450-500 yards and 12th overall in SG: Par 5’s.
Homa also arrives at Muirfield Village in fantastic form. He’s now made the cut in eight straight events and has posted four finishes of 23rd or better in his last five events. In his just his last three starts, Homa has a win, a T-13th and a T-23rd.
That’s why he also rates out quite well in my model. Homa gets better as you decrease the sample size and has a top rating of ninth in my 12-round model. In the 24-round projection, Homa rates 11th and is brilliant in a lot of key metrics. For that specific model, Homa ranks fifth in strokes-gained: approach, 10th in GIRs gained and fourth in both SG: putting – 5 to 10 feet and SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards.
He’s also 21st overall in SG: Par 5’s, so expect Homa to play the key holes well.
For all those reasons, I’m shocked on this price associated with a PGA Tour winner and would play it at +150 or better.
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Best Bet #3 – Brendan Steele Top-40 Finish (+145)
Time for this week’s hidden gem.
Most non-gamblers won’t be familiar with Steele but I believe his game suits Muirfield Village well, a statement supported by his recent performances. The American has made the cut in six straight appearances at this track and has finished T37-T13-T41-T57-T20 in his last five starts here.
He’s also gained strokes off the tee in all five those starts and on approach in three of those most recent five starts. Plus, he’s demonstrated an ability to putt well on these greens, gaining strokes with the flat-stick in four of his last five starts.
Much like Homa, Steele also gets better in the modeling as you consider more recent rounds. He’s 54th in the 50-round model, but ranks 26th or better in the eight-, 12- and 24-round projections.
In his best model (the 12-round model), Steele sits 21st overall in the field. That’s due in large part to the fact Steele ranks 17th in good drives gained, 28th in SG: approach and 10th in GIRs gained. He’s also a reliable putter from close distances (28th in SG: putting – 5 to 10 feet) and ranks 40th in SG: Par 5’s.
He’s also played the key holes at Muirfield Village well – he’s gained on the par 5’s and on the seven par 4’s between 450 and 500 yards in two straight appearances.
As a result, bet on Steele to post his fourth top-40 in his last six starts off a T9 at the PGA Championship.