The Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche will kick off the NHL Western Conference Finals on Tuesday, May 31 at Ball Arena in Denver. The Avalanche are -195 favorites to win Game 1 and are currently priced at -250 to win the series.
Avalanche vs. Oilers Game 1 pick (8:00 PM ET, TNT)
From a narrative perspective, this series is all about Connor McDavid vs. Nathan MacKinnon. McDavid and MacKinnon are two of the best players in NHL history, they’re both in the prime of their careers and they’re in terrific form. This is the first time either one of them has made it this far in the postseason. It’s the type of storyline that hockey columnists will feast on.
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But from a betting perspective, McDavid vs. MacKinnon isn’t all that relevant. If you’re handicapping Oilers vs. Avalanche and it’s leading you to breaking down the battle between McDavid and MacKinnon, you’ve probably gone too far into the weeds. Instead, you should just safely assume that both players will get their points, have a positive impact on the series and basically cancel each other out.
While MacKinnon vs. McDavid will get the majority of the column inches, the most important matchup in this best-of-7 series is the goaltending duel between Mike Smith and Darcy Kuemper.
While Kuemper is widely regarded as the better netminder compared to Smith at this point of their respective careers, it’s Smith who comes into this series in better form. Edmonton’s ageless wonder has skated to a .927 save percentage and a +8.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) through 12 games this postseason, while Kuemper has posted a .904 save percentage and a -3 GSAx. If Smith plays at that level, the Oilers will have a chance to upset the odds in this matchup — especially if Kuemper doesn’t pick up his game.
If Smith does win the goaltending battle, the task for McDavid and Leon Draisaitl becomes a little more manageable. Keeping up with an offensive juggernaut is one thing, but needing to outscore poor goaltending while trying to keep up with them is a whole other dilemma.
No matter how this goaltending battle looks on paper, the Avalanche are still deserving of their status as heavy chalk. The Avs have been the Stanley Cup Favorites for almost the entire season and have done nothing to change anyone’s mind this postseason. Colorado is the better team and the more likely winner in Game 1.
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That said, bettors should discount the Oilers at their own risk in this series. Not only did Edmonton play a terrific series against Calgary in Round 2, but the Oilers have been trending up since they fired Dave Tippett and replaced him with Jay Woodcroft in February.
The Oilers went 26-9-3 under Woodcroft in the regular season, which is good enough for a 119-point pace over an 82-game season. To put that in perspective: The Avalanche finished this season with 119 points.
That doesn’t mean that the Oilers and Avs are on equal footing, but it does show you that the gap between the two teams may not be as wide as the odds imply.
The Bet: Edmonton Oilers +165
Odds courtesy of BetMGM