Against the odds — and the run of play — the New York Rangers are into the Eastern Conference Final. It’s taken two Game 7’s, five elimination-game wins and quite a bit of luck to get here, but that doesn’t matter anymore. All that matters now is whether the Rangers can continue their run by upsetting the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions.
And even though the Rangers are the higher seed and have home-ice advantage, it would be an upset if the Blueshirts advance to the Stanley Cup. Oddsmakers have installed the Rangers as a +150 underdog against the Lightning, meaning they have roughly a 40 percent chance of winning the best-of-seven when you convert the odds to implied win probability.
Even if they are the underdog, there are plenty of reasons to be confident that the Rangers can, at the very least, give the Lightning a run for their money in this series.
And it all starts in goal with Igor Shesterkin.
After an up-and-down performance against the Penguins in Round 1, Shesterkin posted a .945 save percentage and a +14.4 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in the seven games against Carolina. The 26-year-old Russian was the difference in a series where the Hurricanes out-shot the Rangers, 235 to 183, and had a 118-88 edge in high-danger scoring chances.
It’s hard to poke holes in Shesterkin’s form at the moment, but it is important to note that his competition through the first two rounds of the tournament has left a lot to be desired. In fact, Game 1 against Tampa Bay will be just the second time all postseason that the Blueshirts will face the opposition’s No. 1 goaltender. And the only other time New York played against a starting netminder was in Game 7 against the Penguins, when they defeated Tristan Jarry, who was playing his first game in a month after being rushed back from a broken foot.
The wide gap in the goaltending department has allowed the Rangers to survive and advance despite playing underwhelming hockey at 5-on-5. No team in the postseason has a lower expected goals share (39.7 percent) or high-danger scoring chance rate (35.8 percent) at even strength. Through 14 games the Blueshirts have allowed 215 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5. They have created 120 for themselves.
Thanks to Shesterkin, a dynamic power play and their high-skill players, the Rangers do not need to control play or create more scoring opportunities to have success. They can cover their warts with goaltending and converting the chances they do create. That is especially true when going up against pedestrian goaltenders or teams that lack finishing talent.
So while the Rangers could get away with getting out-chanced by a wide margin against the Penguins and Hurricanes, it will be a much more difficult proposition against the Lightning, who are one of the few teams in the NHL that have a goaltender in the same stratosphere as Igor Shesterkin.
Up To $1250 First Bet on Caesars + 1,000 Tier Credits + 1,000 Reward Credits® with code NPBONUSFULL
New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&;C apply.
First Bet Offer: Get up to $1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if You Don't Win! with code NPBONUS
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, TN, VA, PA, OH, WV, WY only.
Get a No Sweat First Bet up to $3,000!
New players only, 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in AZ, CT, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, PA, OH, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Full T&C apply.
2nd Chance Bet Up to $100 with NYPBONUS
New players only, 21+. NY only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full T&C apply.
Bet $50, Get $100 in Free Bets
21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&C apply
Like Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy was not his usual world-beating self for the first few games of Round 1. Also like Shesterkin, it was just a matter of time before Vasilevskiy rounded into form.
After stopping 30 of 31 shots in Game 7 against the Maple Leafs, Vasilevskiy allowed three goals on 154 shots in a four-game sweep of the Panthers. Through 11 games, Vasilevskiy has skated to a .932 save percentage and a +11 GSAx.
Goaltending is notoriously hard to project, so we won’t know how this titanic battle will play out until the series is over, but it does seem pretty safe to assume that Shesterkin will likely face the more difficult workload in this series. The Rangers did a good job disrupting Carolina’s offensive rhythm last round, but the Hurricanes didn’t really have a Plan B after the Blueshirts shut down the forecheck. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is the most versatile team in the NHL.
No matter how you want to play against the Lightning, they usually have an answer for it. They’ve ousted defensive powerhouses like the Islanders and Stars, offensive dynamos like the Maple Leafs and Panthers, and a blend of both like the Hurricanes during their current three-season run.
The Rangers have achieved success in the playoffs by turning games and series into coin flips and then relying on Shesterkin and the power play to be the difference. Gerard Gallant’s team have quickly become experts at hanging around and not beating themselves this postseason. That task will be tougher against the Lightning, but it’s how the Rangers will need to play if they want to give themselves a feasible chance against the Bolts.
Tampa Bay is the better team, but that has not mattered against the Rangers so far. At better than 2/1 odds, there’s plenty of value betting on this series to go the distance.
The bet: Over 6.5 Games +210 (bet365)