Expert MLB betting picks for Tuesday: Best bets and fading the Phillies
Before MLB’s 16-game schedule gets underway, Sean Zerillo and Collin Whitchurch of The Action Network are here to give their best bets (video above).
We’ll begin with Whitchurch, who sees value in a matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies. In that game, he’s backing the Giants moneyline (+110) on BetMGM Sportsbook.
For Whitchurch, this is mostly a bet against Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez.
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“Suarez’s walk rate is up nearly two percent [from 2021] from 7.9 to 9.7 percent,” Whitchurch explains. “The Giants offense conversely walks the second-most frequently in all of baseball at 9.9 percent.”
Plus, Whitchurch believes the Giants are utilizing tonight’s starting pitcher — Jakob Junis — much more effectively. Not only could positive regression be on the way for Junis, but he’s posted a career-high ground ball percentage this year and has only posted a four percent walk rate, another career-best.
For those reasons, Whitchurch recommends backing the Giants on the road and would play it down to +110.
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As for Zerillo, he’s looking to the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers for his best bet: the Pirates +1.5 runs (+118 or better).
The Pirates surprised the Dodgers by handing it a 6-5 defeat in Monday’s opener, and Zerillo believes it’s hard not to find value on Pittsburgh.
“I projected this line…around 30 percent at +233, but you can get a number probably by gametime at +300,” Zerillo says.
Zerillo adds that bettors should wait until as late as possible in order to get the best price on the Pirates. Some shops may very well offer a spread of +2.5 runs, a line he would play up to -125.
For now, at the time of publishing, Zerillo is correct that money is coming in on the Dodgers. The Pirates +1.5 is up to +140 on Caesars Sportsbook and some more money could push the Pirates to +2.5 for tonight’s game. Continue to monitor this line throughout the day and night to get the best price.
Either way, Zerillo trusts the Pittsburgh bullpen to keep this game close late and (hopefully) cover a +1.5 spread.