With two of four major winners crowned in the 2022 golf calendar, we now can shift our attention to the U.S. Open.
Taking place at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass., the 2022 U.S. Open will provide a true test to what will ultimately be a field of 156 players. From what I’ve gleaned, the Country Club will play as relatively short par-70 and will defend against scoring with minuscule greens — the average size is only 4,300 square feet, almost 2,500 square feet less than the average tour stop — and thick rough.
As it stands, 2022 Masters champion Scottie Scheffler, 2022 PGA Champion Justin Thomas and four-time major winner Rory McIlroy are the 12/1 tri-favorites for the event at BetMGM. Following closely behind is defending U.S. Open champion Jon Rahm (14/1) and Dustin Johnson (18/1).
However, with the tournament still a few weeks out, I’m going to choose to look further down the board for bets that could prove valuable come the first tee time. Here are the two players I believe are worthy bets at this point in time.
Daniel Berger (50/1)
Berger had a massively disappointing finish at the PGA Championship, but I’m not placing a ton of emphasis on that performance.
When presented with courses that feature tiny greens, Berger becomes an absolute wizard. His strongest asset is his approach play — he ranks 18th this season in strokes-gained approach and ranked fifth last season — so expect Berger to have an advantage there.
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Plus, Berger has posted strong performances at courses that show similar traits to the Country Club — Harbour Town and Pebble Beach. In his last two appearances at the former, Berger posted finishes of 21st and 13th. He’s also a former winner at Pebble Beach to pair with two other top-10 finishes.
Further, Berger has previously demonstrated a game that fits U.S. Open setups. In seven career appearances at this particular major, Berger has missed the cut only once and has recorded two top-10 finishes in his last four starts. One of those top-10s came in 2018 at Shinnecock Hills, another par-70 that requires accurate drives and features tiny putting surfaces.
For those reasons, I believe Berger is an early buy in the U.S. Open.
Justin Rose (66/1)
Rose finally put an end to his three straight missed cuts with a T13 at the PGA Championship and should be a candidate for success come mid-June.
Although he’s a bit of a boom-or-bust player at this particular major, I’m willing to take a flier at this course. In his last five appearances in the U.S. Open, Rose has gone MC-MC-3-10-MC. However, those two non-missed cuts sandwiched in the middle came in 2019 at Pebble Beach and in 2018 at Shinnecock, two courses that correlate with the Country Club.
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Let’s also not forget that Rose won this major all the way back in 2013 at Merion, yet another narrow track with small greens. Plus, in his last 36 rounds on par 70s under 7,200 yards, Rose ranks 24th among all PGA players in strokes-gained: total. Lessen the sample size to the last 24 rounds and the Englishman moves up to 17th overall.
Add in five top-20 finishes in his last eight appearances at Harbour Town & Riviera Country Club — another correlated course — and I expect a strong performance from Rose at this year’s U.S. Open.