2022 Memorial Tournament odds: Key betting stats at Muirfield Village

Sam Burns produced a miraculous, seven-stroke comeback to claim the Charles Schwab Challenge in a play-off over Scottie Scheffler.

Now, we turn our attention to the Memorial, which features a loaded field. Seven of the OWGR’s top-10 players and 13 of the top-20 will descend upon Muirfield Village Golf Club, a Jack Nicklaus design.

Leading the way on the odds board are Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy (+1000), while two-time winner Patrick Cantlay comes in at +1600. Rounding out the first six options are Xander Schauffele (+1800) with Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth (+2000) finishing out the bunch.

But before we dive into best bets, I’ll first share a look at my statistical modeling strategy for the event. All told, I used 10 measurements to sort the field — including some specifiers — so let’s go ahead and dive into those stats.

All odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Stat #1 – Good Drives Gained (12 percent emphasis)

Defined as either hitting a fairway or hitting a green after missing the short grass, good drives gained will be huge at Muirfield Village.

The lengthy setup features quite penal rough — a missed fairway usually leads to a half-stroke penalty, per datagolf.com — so players will have to be accurate with their drives. Plus, accuracy is much more important than distance at this track — driving accuracy is about 4.2 percent higher than the average PGA Tour stop.

Further, this stat is gaining importance at this tournament. The last two winners here (Cantlay and Rahm) ranked first and fourth, respectively, in the category for the week.

Here are the good drives gained leaders over the last 24 rounds:

1. Martin Laird (+25000)
2. Mito Pereira (+4000)
3. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
4. Shane Lowry (+2500)
5. Brendan Steele (+12500)

Stat #2 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (24 percent emphasis)

Like most tour stops, approach play has a massive correlation with success at Muirfield Village.

According to datagolf.com, there’s a 70 percent correlation between SG: approach and finishing position. Just in last year’s event, the top-five in strokes-gained: approach finished T16-T18-T6-2-1. In 2020, the top-five in this metric finished 2-T22-T32-T22-T40. For those reasons, I’m choosing to make this category my highest-emphasized for the week.

Here are the strokes-gained: approach leaders over the last 24 rounds:

1. Cameron Smith (+2200)
2. Viktor Hovland (+2500)
3. Will Zalatoris (+2500)
4. Shane Lowry (+2500)
5. Max Homa (+3300)

Stat #3 – Greens in Regulation Gained (12 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stats – Putting: 5-10 feet (5 percent emphasis), Putting: 10-15 feet (5 percent emphasis)

I can’t stress this enough — the greens at Muirfield Village are tiny.

We’re not talking U.S. Open-small, but the greens come in at only 5,000 square feet on average. That qualifies MVGC as the seventh-smallest greens on tour.

#theMemorial @ Muirfield Village
-Par 72, 7533 yds
-Wider fwys, disastrous 4-inch bluegrass rough
-Favors power fade, high ball flight apex into firm greens (7th smallest)
-Bent greens severely sloped & fast (13 stimp)
-Played +0.97 last year (7th toughest)
-Par 5s -0.98 combined pic.twitter.com/Q7ye286dUa

— PGA Splits 101 (@PGASplits101) May 30, 2022

As a result, simply placing approaches on the putting surface will prove a greater challenge this week as compared to other events. That’s why I want players atop my model who not only gain strokes on approach and can put it close to the hole, but can avoid the trouble areas around the greens (namely bunkers).

From there, I want to use the two correlated stats to identify players that are strong putters from just outside short-range. Last year, 40 percent of all birdies or better came from those two lengths.

With that said, here are the GIRs gained leaders over the last 24 rounds:

1. Jon Rahm (+1000)
2. Rory McIlroy (+1000)
3. Mito Pereira (+4000)
4. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
5. Aaron Wise (+8000)

Stat #4 – Strokes-Gained: Around the Green (10 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stats – Sand Saves (7 percent emphasis)

Given how small these greens are, players are bound to miss a few and find one of 68 bunkers on the course, 42 of which are situated greenside.

That will provide a test for players’ chipping and their ability to get up-and-down from the bunker. Plus, after SG: approach, this stat provides the second-highest correlation with finishing position from tee-to-green (47 percent correlation). That’s further evidenced by the fact the last three winners at this tournament ranked third, first and fifth in SG: ARG for the week.

Here are the SG: ARG leaders over the last 24 rounds:

1. Matt Kuchar (+8000)
2. Danny Willett (+25000)
3. Pat Perez (+15000)
4. Chris Kirk (+5000)
5. Joaquin Niemann (+4000)

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Stats #5-7 – SG: Par 5’s (10 percent emphasis), SG: Par 4’s – 450-500 yards (10 percent emphasis), SG: Par 3’s – 200-225 yards (5 percent emphasis)

I’m grouping these three together based on their similarity, but the first two are by far the most important.

Last year, the four par 5’s ranked as the four easiest holes on the course with all playing under par for the week and surrendering at least 31 percent birdies or better across four days. Given none are particularly long — the longest comes in at 592 yards — players will need to score well to have success this week.

Moving onto the Par 4’s, this stat choice is all about getting as specific as possible. Of the 10 Par 4’s on the course, seven fall between 450 and 500 yards. These holes are also quite difficult — four rank amongst the nine most difficult holes on course while three rank among the four toughest.

Historically, those seven holes are very influential in deciding a winner. The last three winners here ranked first, fourth and third in that metric for the week.

Finally, we have the par 3’s. The two main reasons why that’s less emphasized are because there are fewer, less important holes to be played and because there’s not a strong correlation with finishing position — two of the last three winners actually lost strokes to the field on the three holes falling in that yardage range.

Nonetheless, I still believe those holes have enough of a role in deciding the winner that I want them included in the model.

Given the higher importance, here are the leaders in the first two categories:

SG: Par 5

1. Jordan Spieth (+2000)
2. Cameron Smith (+2200)
3. Jhonattan Vegas (+15000)
4. Alex Noren (+8000)
5. Keith Mitchell (+15000)

SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards

1. Cameron Young (+3300)
2. Shane Lowry (+2500)
3. Jon Rahm (+1000)
4. Max Homa (+3300)
5. Joaquin Niemann (+4000)