One of the toughest parts of being a fantasy baseball manager is knowing when to cut bait on a player. We are now at the end of May, which means those who have been slumping should have made the necessary adjustments to turn their poor starts around already. If they have, great; it’s business as usual. But if they haven’t, we need to start making room for those who will produce.
The hottest waiver wire pickup this season was Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan. The 24-year-old opened the year in style, batting .354 with seven RBI and 10 runs scored over 15 April games. The numbers aren’t eye-popping, but in a season in which the league average for batting average is .237, a guy posting such a strong number can be worth his weight in fantasy gold.
Unfortunately, pitchers made their adjustments in May, and Kwan has yet to counter, batting just .185 for the month. He doesn’t strike out often, but his overall contact rate has dipped and he went from a 16 percent line-drive rate to mashing the ball into the dirt more than half the time.
You can choose to believe he will turn things back around, but even with adjustments, he never is going to recapture that April magic. Without a batting average over .300, he doesn’t hold much fantasy value, as he doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t have much speed. His value is all but gone in shallow leagues, and he is barely a borderline start in deeper formats.
On the pitching front, we are in an intriguing spot. All 30 teams are using humidors to store the baseballs, and the evidence of a deadened ball to begin with has been overwhelming. So, when veteran pitchers such as Charlie Morton and Zack Greinke are struggling, you have to ask yourself if rostering either is worthwhile. Both are being held onto for too long simply because of name recognition, so it’s up to you to recognize how strikeout rates are down, ERAs and WHIPs are up, and age continues to deteriorate skill-sets.
Everyone’s greatest fear in fantasy is dropping a player only for them to be picked up by a rival team and excel. If you were making knee-jerk reactions after two weeks of games, we’d tell you to be patient. But at this point in time, you need to cut the dead weight. Forget about the names and forget about what you paid in free-agent dollars. If the player isn’t producing, it’s time to go.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball advice.