For the fourth time this postseason, the New York Rangers find themselves in a win-or-go-home spot.
Trailing the Carolina Hurricanes, 3-2, in a best-of-seven series, the Blueshirts need to beat the Canes twice in a row to earn the right to play the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference final.
Bookmakers have priced Game 6 as a coin flip, but the Canes are -425 to win the series, which means they have an implied series-win probability of 81 percent.
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Game 6 picks (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
Overall the margins in this series have been quite thin, but there’s no denying that the Hurricanes have been the better team at 5-on-5. The two teams may be knotted, 5-5, in terms of even strength goals, but Carolina has tallied 48 more shot attempts, 44 more scoring chances and 21 more high-danger scoring chances than the Rangers at 5-on-5 so in the series.
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The Rangers aren’t too fussed about getting out-chanced at 5-on-5 because they have an all-world goaltender and offensive talents that can change a game in an instant, but that style of play does put a lot of pressure on Igor Shesterkin and the power play to be the difference. If Shesterkin isn’t on song or the power play fumbles, the Hurricanes should be able to grind down the Blueshirts.
That played out in Game 5 in Raleigh, as the Hurricanes forecheck proved to be too strong for the Rangers, who need to open up the game to create chances off the rush.
Even if the numbers point to Carolina, there are some narrative-based trends that can give the Blueshirts some hope. For one, they are 3-0 in elimination games this postseason. Additionally, the Hurricanes are 0-5 on the road during the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
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The Rangers will certainly point to their performance from Round 1 — when they came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Penguins — as a reason to be confident that they can upset the odds again, but the truth is that coming back against Carolina is a much steeper task than doing it against the depleted Pens.
As for the home/road splits, it’s hard to decipher what on earth is going on with Carolina this postseason. The Hurricanes registered the third-most away wins during the regular season, so this is a new phenomenon. Additionally, you could argue that the Canes played one of their best games of the series in Game 3 at MSG, when they won the expected goals battle, 3.4 to 2.1, and were +11 in terms of high-danger scoring chances.
Through five games, it’s become pretty clear that the Hurricanes are the stronger team in this matchup and were deserving of their status as series favorites. So long as the game stays relatively on script, the Canes should be able to control play and give themselves a better chance to win than the Rangers. And for a game where they may close as an underdog, that’s all you’re asking for.
The Bet: Carolina -110
Odds via BetMGM