It is with a heavy heart that we bid farewell to Luka Doncic and the Mavericks tonight, as they prepare to face their inevitable elimination in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between Dallas and the Golden State Warriors (9:00 p.m. ET on TNT).
We can already see the writing on the wall here. The Mavericks were up 20 for most of the game, but the Warriors just kept coming and pulled the deficit to single digits.
For now, the assumption should be that the Warriors close the Mavericks out tonight. The Warriors still have not lost at home and have an excellent home-court advantage.
The problem with this series wasn’t the starting lineups being lopsided. It’s been the Mavericks’ inability to control the game when the benches face off.
Overall, they have struggled to control the pace of the game and are extremely inefficient.
Thanks to StatMuse, we have some stats to actually quantify it. These stats include plus-minus, field goal percentage, and three-point percentage. The results are lopsided.
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Mavericks bench stats vs. Warriors bench stats
Mavericks bench: 312 minutes, 107 points, 38.7% FG%, 25.4% 3P%, -54 (plus-minus)
Warriors bench: 309 minutes, 137 points, 56.3% FG%, 39.4 3P%, +33 (plus-minus)
Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 5 odds
Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook
Spread: DAL +6.5 (-110) vs. GSW -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: DAL (+250) vs. GSW (-320)
Total: Over 214.5 (-110) | Under 214.5 (-110)
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Mavericks vs. Warriors player prop bets
Jalen Brunson ‘over’ 3.5 assists +105 (BetMGM)
Still being disrespected by sportsbooks, Brunson’s assists projection has been 3.5 since the start of the series, but he has been over this number in three of four games. Brunson is a key part of this offense and will be heavily relied on in this tough elimination Game 5 on the road.
Andrew Wiggins 8+ rebounds +215 (FanDuel)
Shocking how far he has come from a future superstar to a bust and now a top-three player on a title-contending team (yes, he’s better than Thompson and Poole right now).
Wiggins is over this number in just one game this series but this bet hit four times out of six games in the last series. At home, Wiggins is the type of player that has been energized by the raucous crowds at the Chase Center. Rebounding is effort, as we know.
DraftKings hybrid player prop specials
Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Jalen Brunson 3+ three-pointers made each +3000
+3000 is much too high here. Wiggins has been shooting quite a lot and this is a home game for the Warriors. The question here is if Brunson can hit threes consistently, especially on the road. Regardless, this is a solid bet for the price.