For the second time this postseason, the New York Rangers have battled back from a two-game deficit to get a series back on level-pegging. But this comeback against Carolina is a little different from the one the Blueshirts pulled off against the Penguins.
While the Rangers benefited from a lot of good fortune against the Penguins and were going up against a depleted team, they’ve earned their way back into the best-of-7 series against the Hurricanes, who can’t make the same kind of excuses that Pittsburgh could at the end of the series.
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Game 5 odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: NYR +1.5 (-200) vs. CAR -1.5 (+170)
Moneyline: NYR (+125) vs. CAR (-155)
Total: Over 5.5 (+115) | Under 5.5 (-140)
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Rangers vs. Hurricanes Game 5 prediction
What’s most surprising about how this series has played out is that the Rangers have significantly improved their defense at 5-on-5. Against the Penguins, the Rangers allowed 114 high-danger scoring chances in seven games. Even though they were eliminated in Round 1, Pittsburgh still ranks third out of the 16 playoff teams in high-danger chances created.
New York’s leaky defense and inability to protect the house against the Penguins led most folks to the logical prediction that the Hurricanes — who finished the regular season with the second-most high-danger scoring chances created — would have their way with the Rangers at 5-on-5.
That just hasn’t been the case.
The Canes are getting more scoring chances and shot attempts at 5-on-5, but they are not getting the separation needed against a team like the Rangers, who are built to withstand getting out-chanced thanks to their all-world goaltender and a big advantage on special teams. If you let the Blueshirts hang around, like the Hurricanes are doing, they will make you pay.
Carolina is a team that thrives on getting pucks in behind the defense and going to work on the forecheck. No team in the NHL retrieved more pucks off of dump-ins than the Hurricanes did in the regular season. When working, that style of play allows the Canes to wear out defenses and either catch them with tired legs or force them to over-commit and then find someone in open ice to create a good scoring opportunity.
Through four games, Carolina’s dump-and-chase style is not working. Part of it is due to a woefully cold offense that features several slumping players, but it’s also a matchup issue against Igor Shesterkin. Few netminders handle the puck as well as Shesterkin and his ability to move the puck can stop Carolina’s forecheck in its tracks.
While Carolina’s offense is sputtering, its 5-on-5 defense remains in pretty strong form. The Hurricanes have held the Rangers to just five goals, 8.03 expected goals and 31 high-danger scoring chances in nearly 200 minutes of 5-on-5 play.
What has been plaguing the Hurricanes is that they’ve made one too many mistakes against a clinical team. Whether that means taking unnecessary penalties or turning the puck over too many times, the Canes will need to play a much cleaner game on Thursday night to get the series back on their terms.
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Although Games 3 and 4 could have easily gone over the total if not for some terrific goaltending and shoddy finishing from Carolina, it’s hard to ignore just how tight these two teams played in Raleigh last week. There have been a total of 14 goals through the first games of this series and only nine of them at 5-on-5. It feels like another tight game is in the cards and a bet on this game to go beyond 60 minutes makes sense.
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Game 5 pick
Will the game go to overtime? Yes (+330) — DraftKings Sportsbook