Golf odds, predictions: Justin Rose, Patrick Reed top Charles Schwab matchup bets

Less than 24 hours separates golf bettors from the start of the Charles Schwab Challenge, and we’re here to present a final set of plays.

We’ve already broken down our favorite derivative bets for the tournament, so today’s focus will be on the matchups. I’ve identified two markets that should provide bettors the most value based on both course history and modeling projections.

Let’s dive into my favorite matchup bets at Colonial Country Club, with odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Best Bet #1 – Justin Rose (-112) over Jason Kokrak

Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

Both Rose and Kokrak are former winners at this track — Rose in 2018, Kokrak in 2021 — but Rose has the more complete record at Colonial.

In his last four appearances at this course, the former U.S. Open winner has posted finishes of 20th, 3rd, 58th and 1st. On the flip-side, Kokrak’s victory last year was only his third top-20 finish in seven appearances at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

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Plus, Rose has the edge according to my statistical model. Over his last 24 qualifying rounds, the Englishman ranks out 37th in the field. Kokrak, over his last 24 qualifying rounds, sits 41st. But, if you expand the sample size to include each player’s last 50 qualifying rounds, the gap widens. Rose ranks out 17th in the 50-round projection while Kokrak drops to 53rd in that sample.

Rose also has a good track record on courses under 7,200 yards. In his last five non-major events on such tracks, he’s gone 33rd-10th-40th-10th-46th. Kokrak, in his last five events on such courses, has finished 35th-17th-MC-1st-56th. However, only the first two came in the last calendar year.

Given Rose has more experience on these courses and is a more accurate player — he outranks Kokrak in both SG: T2G and fairways gained — expect the 2018 winner to have the edge this weekend.

Best Bet #2 – Patrick Reed (-115) over Rickie Fowler

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Frankly, I’m shocked the price on Reed isn’t higher here as my projections make him a much bigger favorite.

Over each player’s last 24 qualifying rounds, Reed ranks out 22nd in my projection and sits 36th or better in seven of 10 individual metrics. Fowler, on the other hand, is 105th in my 24-round model and only ranks inside the top-50 in one of 10 statistical measures.

Plus, in the two most emphasized categories — strokes-gained: approach and strokes-gained: Par 4’s — these players could not be more different. Reed is 61st and 23rd, respectively, in those measures while Fowler sits 104th and 102nd, respectively, in just those categories.

In just evaluating both players on a strokes-gained measure, the gap is still sizable. Reed is 24th in strokes-gained: total over his last 50 rounds on tracks under 7,200 yards while Fowler ranks out 98th in the same measure.

The course history edge belongs to Reed, too, as the former Masters winner has two top-15 finishes in his last three starts at Colonial while Fowler has missed the cut in three of his last four starts here.

As a result, I would play Reed all the way up to -135.