Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin have agreed to face each other for a third time on Sept. 17. The first two bouts were hotly debated with one finishing in a draw and Alvarez winning the second meeting by majority decision.
Oddsmakers aren’t expecting the third fight to be quite as close. Canelo opened as a heavy -410 favorite with the underdog Golovkin set at +290. It’s somewhat surprising to see Alvarez as such a big favorite considering he closed around a +150 underdog in each of the first two fights.
Canelo vs. Gennadiy ‘GGG’ Golovkin odds
Odds provided by DraftKings
Canelo Alvarez: -350 vs. GGG: +295
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Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy ‘GGG’ Golovkin preview
One reason why the odds have shifted so drastically towards Canelo is because GGG is now 40-years-old. While many people, including myself, believe Golovkin won both prior fights against Alvarez, there is a sense that his best days may be behind him. Still, you can expect early money to come in on Golovkin. If you plan to back GGG, jump on him soon. I expect this fight to close around Canelo -250.
Alvarez is coming off just the second loss of his career against unbeaten light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol. Canelo struggled against the bigger Bivol and said after the loss he would drop back down to 168. True to his word, the undisputed super middleweight champion will defend his titles against Golovkin for a third time.
Since the controversial loss to Alvarez in 2018, GGG is 4-0 with three knockouts against inferior competition. It’s hard to know how much an aging Golovkin has left for a third meeting versus an elite fighter like Canelo. He’s only fought once in the last two years and that was a glorified sparring session against overmatched Ryota Murata.
Golovkin was the aggressor in the first meeting and really controlled the fight in my opinion. Of the two fights, that’s the one most believe GGG won. However, he wasn’t given the decision on any of the three scorecards with Adalaide Byrd once again proving she’s the most incompetent boxing judge of all time by scoring the fight a laughable 118-110 for Alvarez.
Canelo was much more aggressive in the second meeting and while I gave the decision to Golovkin, it really could have gone either way. Golovkin connected on more punches (234-202) but Alvarez had the edge in power shots (143-116).
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Even though he’s older, there is still value backing GGG at +290, especially when you factor in that he closed around a -170 favorite for the previous two fights. The problem is it’s nearly impossible to earn a decision over Canelo. Bivol dominated most of the bout against Alvarez but still needed to win the final round to avoid a draw, taking the decision 115-113 on all three scorecards.
The line isn’t out yet but the bet to make might be the over total rounds. Both these fighters have excellent chins. In a combined 105 fights, neither boxer has ever been in serious danger of getting knocked out.
There are still four months before the fight takes place but one thing is guaranteed: Canelo Alvarez will be the betting favorite over Gennadiy Golovkin for the first time when they meet on Sept. 17.