The final score for Sunday’s Game 3 between the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes may have looked in line with what we saw from the first two games in Raleigh, but anybody watching would tell you that is not the case.
Through the first two games of the series, both Carolina and New York seemed OK with focusing on playing well-structured defense and keeping the game predictable. That pragmatic style of hockey culminated in Game 2, when the two teams combined for 10 high-danger scoring chances between them at 5-on-5. On Sunday, that total ballooned to 25 and if it weren’t for superb goaltending, especially from Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers and Hurricanes could have posted some crooked numbers in what was otherwise a pretty open game.
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Hurricanes vs. Rangers Game 4 odds
Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook
Spread: CAR +1.5 (-280) v.s NYR -1.5 (+230)
Moneyline:: CAR (-110) vs. NYR (-110)
Total: Over 5.5 (+110) | Under 5.5 (-130)
Hurricanes vs. Rangers Game 4 prediction
And in that open environment, it was Carolina that had the run of play. The Hurricanes attempted 19 more shots (63-44), created nine more high-danger scoring chances (17-8), and created 1.35 more expected goals (3.39 to 2.04) at 5-on-5 in Game 3. Shesterkin’s performance and a power-play goal were enough for the Rangers to get the win — and New York is the type of team that can get results despite the ice being tilted in the wrong direction. That’s the beauty of having an all-world goaltender and a great power play.
Even with a more open style of play, the final score for Game 3 was 3-1 and one of those tallies came via the empty net. That makes eight total goals for the series, including two empty-netters and an overtime winner. In other words, it’s been a series to remember for under-backers
In a series like this, bookmakers know that money is going to show up on the under, no matter the price. At the time of writing, the Over/Under for Game 4 is sitting at 5.5 with the under juiced to -135. There’s even a chance we could. see a few sportsbooks move the total to 5 throughout the day on Tuesday.
At this point, it’s buyer beware on the under in this series. You’re already going to be paying a tax because of how the first three games have played out and it’s fair to suggest that Game 3 played out as an ‘over game’ even if the final score disagreed.
Additionally, it’s hard to imagine that the goaltending in this series will continue to be this good for much longer. Antti Raanta and Igor Shesterkin are both in tip-top form, but the two of them are both above .945 save percentages through three games. Part of that is due to the defensive chess match we saw in Game 2, where neither side created anything offensively, but at some point, the goaltending will dip, even if just a little.
It’s also worth noting that there were plenty of extra-curricular activities after Game 3 and both camps seem to be pretty heated. If that spills over into Tuesday night, we could see plenty of power plays, which is a good thing for punters who back the over.
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These days it’s pretty rare that NHL bettors get plus-money on an Over 5.5. And even though this series has flown under in each of the first three games, there are signs that the games will begin to open up.
Hurricanes vs. Rangers Game 4 pick
Over 5.5 (+110) – Caesars