Though the match has little meaning on the final table, my best bet for the Premier League’s last matchday comes in Brighton versus West Ham United.
West Ham could still move into the Europa League places with a win and Manchester United loss, but Brighton has been a juggernaut at home. The Seagulls have a plus-3.1 expected goal differential at the Amex, the 10th-best mark in the league. Brighton is also a positive regression candidate as its realistic home goal differential is minus-6.
West Ham has come up extremely lucky away from home. The Hammers have a plus-4 road goal differential on a minus-6 expected goal differential.
Bet $20 Get $100 in Bonus Bets!
New WynnBet users only. Must be 21+. Offer available in AZ, CO, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, TN, VA only. Full Terms and Conditions Apply.
Up to $1,250 First Bet on Caesars with code NPBONUSFULL
New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, PA, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, TN, VA, WV only. Full Terms and Conditions apply.
Bet $1, Get $200 in Bonus Bets
New players only, 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in NJ, CO, VA, OH only. Deposit required. Bonus Bets added to Bonus Bets balance. Bonus Bets risk excluded from returns. Terms and Conditions, time limits and exclusions apply.
2nd Chance Bet up to $500 with code NYPBONUS
New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, PA, VA only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full Terms and Conditions apply.
2nd Chance Bet up to $100 with code NYPBONUS
New players only, 21+. Available in NY only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full Terms and Conditions apply.
Bet $10, Get $125 in Sports Bonus if your first bet wins
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21+ and located in PA or NJ. New users & winning bets only. Terms and Conditions apply. See website for details.
100% match up to $500
Claim your eligible bonus from within account after login per promotion instructions. Either way, get a 100% match up to $250 on your first deposit. Only one code may be used. First Deposit Bonus may only be claimed once per person. Must be 21+. CT only. Full Terms and Conditions apply.
Bet $10, Get $125 If Your Bet Wins!
New users only, 21+. Available in MI only. Full Terms and Conditions apply.
In eight road fixtures vs. top-half opposition, West Ham is 0-7-1 (W-L-D) with a minus-12.4 expected goal differential. Even if you remove matches against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea from the equation, West Ham is still 0-4-1 (W-L-D) with a -7.1 expected goal differential.
Check Out the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps
- Check out the best sports betting sites
- Download the best sports betting apps
For the reverse fixture at the London Stadium — West Ham’s preferred venue — these sides were basically level. With the Seagulls on friendly turf, I’ll back Brighton.
The play: Brighton Draw, No Bet (-135).