We’ve broken down our four favorite derivative bets for the 2022 PGA Championship, and now we turn our attention to the matchups.
In all of the following three cases, I’ve identified players that the market has rated as underdogs but my projections make them favorites. Additionally, there has been some interesting line moves in these matchups.
With that in mind, let’s dive into my three matchup selections for the PGA Championship at Southern Hills Country Club.
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Best Bet #1 – Keegan Bradley (+120) over Tyrrell Hatton
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Call me crazy, but I can’t believe this price for this specific matchup.
If you read my derivatives column, you already know I’m high on Bradley, who sits inside the top-10 in all my 24-, 36- and 50-round model projections and opened as a +100 underdog here. Plus, it bears worth repeating that Bradley has finished inside the top-10 in three of his last four starts, including a fifth-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship.
On the flip side, I don’t understand the love for Hatton at all. He’s 91st in my 50-round model, 88th in my 36-round projection, and 79th overall across his last 24 qualifying rounds. Just in terms of the latter projection, Hatton ranks out inside the top-60 in only one statistical measure and ranks outside the top-80 in both driving distance (81st) and SG: around the green (110th).
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Lastly, Hatton holds a horrific record in the majors lately. In his last five starts, he’s gone 52-MC-MC-38-18. He also missed the cut in all three majors held in the 2020 calendar year.
Even if you just consider both players’ strokes-gained record on 7400-plus yard courses, the advantage still lies with Bradley. Across his last 36 qualifying rounds, the 2011 PGA champion in 26th in SG: total while Hatton sits 74th.
For all those reasons, I’d play Bradley all the way up to -125.
Best Bet #2 – Talor Gooch (+125) over Alex Noren
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Gooch is not someone I’m particularly high on when it comes to the derivative markets, but I like him a lot in this matchup.
The Oklahoma State product rates out 55th in my 24-round, but there are some positives going in his favor. He was T14 at the Masters and possesses a strong approach game (26th in SG: approach over his last 24 rounds) that will inform success for Gooch at Southern Hills.
Additionally, Gooch ranks 19th in the field in SG: total across his last 24 rounds on courses longer than 7400 yards. Noren, meanwhile, is 110th in the former category and doesn’t rate out well in my model.
The Swedish international is 94th overall in my 24-round model and 100th overall in my 36-round projection. In terms of the former projection, Noren ranks out 90th in SG: approach and 105th in driving distance. Further, he sits 87th in strokes-gained: Par 4’s. In fact the only category in which Noren ranks higher than 50th in SG: Par 3’s, the least emphasized category.
And yet, you’re telling me he wins this matchup almost 60 percent of the time based on his implied odds? I’m simply not buying it. Play Gooch all the way up to -110.
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Best Bet #3 – Jason Day (+115) over Kevin Na
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
When this lined open, Day was a -120 favorite. Now, he’s sitting 35 cents lower and I can’t help but disagree with the move.
In terms of my 24-round projection, these players could not be further apart. Day sits 28th overall in that model while Na ranks out 145th. Although both players sit outside the top-100 in SG: approach, Day’s advantage in both driving distance and short-game creativity (10th and 4th, respectively, in driving distance and SG: ARG) should give him an advantage over Na, who ranks outside the top-100 in four of six statistical measures.
Additionally, Day is 38th in SG: total over his last 36 rounds on 7,400-plus yard courses while Na is 106th in the same measure.
Plus, for all his struggles, Day tends to show up at the PGA Championship. He’s made the cut in nine straight appearances and, in just his last four starts, has finished 44-4-23-19. On the flip-side, Na has gone MC-MC-MC-19 in his last four PGA’s and has missed the cut in four straight majors not named The Masters.
At a course that rewards length, I have a hard time envisioning how Na can overcome his 130th-place rating in driving distance and would play Day all the way up to original -120.