Tiger Woods leads quartet of PGA Championship first-round leader bets

After sharing my favorite derivative and matchup plays for the 2022 PGA Championship, we’re down to our final set of plays.

That, of course, is our favorite first-round leader bets at Southern Hills Country Club. The betting equivalent of putting a blindfold on and throwing darts, I’m choosing to look for some longshots that could provide nice payouts rather than the favorites.

So, without further hesitation, here are the four players I’m targeting to find themselves at the top of the leaderboard come Thursday night. All odds come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Best Bet #1 – Tony Finau (+5500)

Finau is someone who ranks out decently in my statistical model — he’s 36th in my 36-round measure — but there’s a lot going for him as a FRL bet.

If you just consider Finau’s statistical modeling in the opening round on courses over 7,400 yards, he jumps up to 25th in my model.

Additionally, Finau is sixth in the field in SG: total in his last 24 opening rounds on 7,400-plus-yard tracks, ranking 14th in SG: tee-to-green and 11th in SG: Ball Striking. Further, Finau ranks first in the field in birdies or better gained over his last 24 opening rounds on 7,400-plus yard courses and seventh in the field in bogeys avoided.

And although I don’t expect there to be many eagles at Southern Hills, it’s worth noting Finau is second in the field in eagles gained over those same 24 qualifying rounds and ranks fourth in actual birdies gained.

Plus, Finau was T10 at -1 following the opening round of the Masters and has finished his opening round under par in two consecutive majors.

Best Bet #2 – Justin Rose (+5500)

I was slightly taken aback by this price on Rose, but all statistics point to this being a good bet.

The former U.S. Open champion ranks out first in 50-round statistical model and second behind only Dustin Johnson in the 36-round measure. In the former model, Rose ranks out no worse than 13th in any of the six statistical measures and sits fifth or better in four of six statistical categories.

If you add an “opening round” qualifier to the statistical model, Rose still rates out third over both his last 50 and 36 rounds.

Plus, Rose is 22nd in the field in SG: total over his last 24 opening rounds on 7,400-plus yard tracks and 17th in the field over his last 36 qualifying rounds. He’s also 11th in the field in birdies or better gained over his last 24 opening rounds on 7,400-yard courses and ranks inside the top-38 in both opportunities gained and bogey avoidance.

He also has experience finding himself at the top of the leaderboard Thursday at majors. At the 2019 Masters, Rose finished the day as the first-round leader.

Best Bet #3 – Tiger Woods (+6000)

Woods will undoubtedly be freshest when he begins his opening round, so why not have a flier with the big cat?

Setting that aside, Woods actually rates out very well in my statistical model this week. He’s ninth overall in my 36-round model and ranks 22nd or better in the field in four of six statistical measures.

Plus, across his last 24 opening rounds on courses measuring over 7400 yards, Woods ranks 26th in the field in strokes-gained: tee-to-green and 13th overall in strokes-gained: approach. Further, he’s 20th in the field in birdies or better gained over his last 24 opening rounds on 7,400-plus yard tracks and 22nd in actual birdies gained.

Add in that Woods put together a solid opening round at the 2022 Masters (a one-under 71 left him only four back of FRL Sungjae Im) and the fact he has a win under his belt at Southern Hills and I believe he’s worth a gamble at 60/1.

---

Check Out the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps

• Check out the best sports betting sites
• Download the best sports betting apps

---

Best Bet #4 – Keegan Bradley (+7500)

Readers of my derivative and matchup columns will know I’m extremely high on Bradley this week. So, why not complete the trifecta and take a FRL shot too?!

Last season, Bradley finished in a tie for 13th in terms of his opening round scoring average and has strong underlying figures backing him up. Over his last 24 opening rounds on courses longer than 7,400 yards, Bradley is ninth in the field in SG: total and sits inside the top-20 in all of SG: T2G (2nd), SG: approach (3rd) and SG: around the green (17th).

Plus, Bradley is 16th in birdies or better gained over those same 24 qualifying rounds and fourth in the field in bogey avoidance. Additionally, should you add an “opening round” qualifier to the statistical model, Bradley ranks out 16th overall and is 25th or better in four of six statistical measures.

Additionally, in the opening round at Kiawah Island for last year’s PGA Championship, Bradley was only two shots off the opening-round lead and finished inside the top-five for the day.

For those reasons, I’m surprised Bradley isn’t hovering near the other three for a FRL price and am happy to take a shot at 75/1.